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After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows.

Industrial production (IP) fell by 1.4% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, while increasing by 0.2% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. GDP growth will likely materialize closer to 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3-3.5% in 2024 led by monetary tightening and poor foreign demand.

Industrial production (IP) slightly fell by 0.1% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, corresponding to 4.0% y/y growth in cal. adj. terms. Given our soft-landing assumption with expected fiscal impulse and support from potential foreign capital i…

Turkish economy grew by 7.4% yoy in 3Q21, resulting in a growth rate of 11.7% in the first three quarters of the year. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% forecast. Though, recent currency shock and accompanying…

The advance of the GDP in Q3 (16.7% t/t; -8.7% y/y) exceeded expectations thanks, above all, to positive surprises in investment. Although domestic demand explained most of the growth (-16.1pp t/t; -4.2pp a/a), external demand also added up. Th…

Consumer prices increased 1.87% (mom) in April, even higher than our above consensus estimate (1.7% vs. 1.5%).Annual consumer inflation jumped to 10.85% from 10.23% with a more rapid pick-up in core prices than our expectation. We maintain our year-end inflation estimate at 10.5%, though exchange rate volatility and loose p…

The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 2Q17 decelerated to reach 0.3% QoQ, in line with the BBVA Research estimate (0.4% QoQ) and below that seen in 1Q17 (1.0% QoQ). Based on data so far available, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q17 will be around 0.5% QoQ.