ECB

In a particularly turbulent environment such as this, it is worth highlighting the calm, rationality, consistency as well as humility with which central banks are implementing their monetary policy.

As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.

No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises…

The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth un…

A few days ago, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the first revision of its operational framework, designed to guide short-term interest rates into line with its monetary policy decisions and provide liquidity in a context of gradual ba…

This meeting further supports the expectation of an initial rate cut in June in line with our forecasts. The updated projections match our own. Nevertheless, the ECB needs to verify that core inflation, particularly from services and consequent…