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No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises in the outlook for inflation during the rest of the year.

The ECB will most likely lower its interest rates at its monetary policy meeting this week. This decision has long been anticipated, suggested at previous meetings, and even clearly accepted in statements by the more hawkish members of the Governing Council.

All in all, while waiting for wage data that underpin the expected slowdown in service prices, the ECB heads to the June meeting leaving the stage set to begin the cycle of cuts, regardless of the Fed's monetary policy steps.

The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth un…

A few days ago, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the first revision of its operational framework, designed to guide short-term interest rates into line with its monetary policy decisions and provide liquidity in a context of gradual ba…

This meeting further supports the expectation of an initial rate cut in June in line with our forecasts. The updated projections match our own. Nevertheless, the ECB needs to verify that core inflation, particularly from services and consequently wages, moderates as expected.

In this publication you will find, on a weekly basis, our selection of the most relevant news regarding financial regulation.

All eyes at the beginning of 2024 are on the first monetary policy meetings, with the European Central Bank (ECB) holding its on Thursday and the U.S. Federal Reserve later this week. The meetings are unlikely to result in any action on interes…

All in all, today's ECB meeting did not provide much new information. As anticipated, no change in interest rates was decided. The focus was on the ECB's tone about the timing of initial rate cuts. The conveyed message was relatively dovish, wi…

At today's monetary policy meeting, the ECB maintained rates at 4% for deposit facility and the main refinancing operations rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations.

Today's ECB policy adhered to broader expectations of maintaining the status quo on policy rates and quantitative tightening. After a remarkable streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes, the ECB's decision today to leave the three key ECB interest rates unchanged came as no surprise, in line with our expectations.

In this publication you will find, on a weekly basis, our selection of the most relevant news regarding financial regulation.