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Economic policies

Economic policies latest publications

May 13, 2019

Closer to a trade war?

At BBVA Research we estimate that a tariff increase to 25% could bring Chinese GDP down 0.5 pp from our base scenario, in which China grows by around 6% in 2019. The impact on the other two trading blocks will be less severe, around 0.2 pp in the United States and 0.1 pp in the eurozone.

November 21, 2018

Latin America: Uncertainty grips large countries

The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are simultaneously dealing with the impact of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, the uncertainty generated by the reforms of the new government in Brazil and the mixed news coming out of Mexico. By contrast, the Andean countries are accelerating thanks…

November 13, 2018

A note of optimism for economic prospects

Policy recipe offered by Xi at import expo will help to solve trade disputes and rebalance China's economy. The China International Import Expo started in Shanghai on Nov 5, and the inaugural event, announced more than a year ago, stands in stark contrast to the escalated trade tension between China and the United States.

November 5, 2018

The different Latin Americas

The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are witnessing at the same time the impact of the currency crisis in Argentina and uncertainty over how far-reaching the new Brazilian government’s tax and pension reforms will be. On the other hand the Andean countries continue to accelerate, driven by…

October 29, 2018

Some keys to the Italian crisis

The fact that investors and the European Commission have turned the spotlight on the Italian economy as a result of Italy's presenting a budget with a public deficit target of a seemingly moderate 2.4% of GDP may seem paradoxical if certain differentiating factors that have accompanied this crisis are not properly understoo…

May 14, 2018

The new Google tax: an experiment in taxation policy

The recent proposal of the Spanish government, to tax the income generated in Spain by the major digital companies, is an effort aligned with that of other European Union neighbours to prevent possible evasion and erosion of the tax base. A laudable objective, and one shared by the whole world’s tax authorities.