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Spain's GDP growth forecast is maintained for 2023 (2.4%), revised downwards to 1.5% in 2024 and is expected to accelerate in 2025 (2.5%). The growth bias is negative due to the geopolitical context and uncertainty in EMU activity and economic policy measures.

Timid and less timely countercyclical policies, structural lags and problems of uncertainty for investment are behind the greater decline and the prospects for a slower recovery expected for Mexico.

In this Working Paper we analyze the stabilizing role that economic policies have played during the current COVID-19 crisis in Spain.

The pandemic has been the deciding factor in the performance of the global economy throughout the year, and will certainly remain so in the coming quarters.

This report analyzes the ways to finance this round of fiscal stimulus package and responds to the recent debate of fiscal deficit monetization. The report also makes policy suggestions to maintain Chinese public debt level and financial stabil…

The economic crisis that has accompanied the COVID-19 is markedly different from others that have come before. This has made it difficult to make forecasts, with at least three sources of uncertainty: how much activity is falling, how will economic agents react and how efficient will economic policies be implemented.

We are faced with a pandemic whose economic impact will likely cause the biggest drop in global GDP since the end of the Second World War. The uncertainties are enormous.

An analysis of economic variables and through Big Data is made to quantify the effects of sargassum in the tourist activity of Quintana Roo in 2019. The results do not find solid evidence in this regard, either because it was not a relevant fac…

It has become fairly commonplace to talk about the high uncertainty of the global economic scenario, about growth prospects that, whatever they may be, are generally being revised downward or at risk of default biased in that direction.

One of the most hotly debated political issues during the last elections was the margin that Spain has for raising and lowering taxes.

At BBVA Research we estimate that a tariff increase to 25% could bring Chinese GDP down 0.5 pp from our base scenario, in which China grows by around 6% in 2019. The impact on the other two trading blocks will be less severe, around 0.2 pp in the United States and 0.1 pp in the eurozone.

The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are simultaneously dealing with the impact of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, the uncertainty generated by the reforms of the new government in Brazil and the mixed news coming out of Mexico. By contrast, the Andean countries are accelerating thanks…