Publications

Colombia’s GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, driven by consumption and investment. Inflation will continue to decline but remain rigid in housing and energy. The external deficit will widen as domestic demand rises, while the central bank balances economic recovery with inflationary prudence.

The Colombian economy will begin a slow recovery process in 2024, which could be more successful with a strong boost to investment. To this end, it is of utmost importance to promote better performance in two sectors that were key in the past and in other countries around the world: housing and infrastructure.

Inflation in Mexico during the first half of April reached a level of 7.7% while core inflation also registered a very high 7.2%. Both figures are the highest since January 2001.

The recovery of the Spanish economy continued in the fourth quarter, with quarterly GDP growth of 2%. This was higher than for the Eurozone (0.3%), but lower than the previous quarter (2.6%) and lower than BBVA Research's own forecast (2.4%).

Leaving aside divergences in the short term, a comprehensive, balanced approach must pay attention to all the underlying information on the ongoing recovery of the Spanish economy that indicators such as GDP and employment can offer us.

The global economy beat forecasts in 2021, with a more positive than expected first half to the year — driven by the restart in activity and the rollout of vaccinations. However, the second six months were more moderate, affected by supply chain disruptions and rising inflation.

We estimate 7.9% to 9.6% annual GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Economic recovery continues in the fourth quarter, but a more demanding base in 2020 leads to a gradual reduction in annual growth.

The economy is recovering strongly, as confirmed by both third quarter growth data and our real-time indicators as of the third week of November. The protagonist of this recovery is both private and public consumption.