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The Colombian economy will begin a slow recovery process in 2024, which could be more successful with a strong boost to investment. To this end, it is of utmost importance to promote better performance in two sectors that were key in the past and in other countries around the world: housing and infrastructure.
Growth expectations and the macroeconomic environment for 2023 set a less encouraging scenario for job creation in 2023. We expect 527K new jobs to be created by the end of the year, equivalent to a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%.
Inflation in Mexico during the first half of April reached a level of 7.7% while core inflation also registered a very high 7.2%. Both figures are the highest since January 2001.
The recovery of the Spanish economy continued in the fourth quarter, with quarterly GDP growth of 2%. This was higher than for the Eurozone (0.3%), but lower than the previous quarter (2.6%) and lower than BBVA Research's own forecast (2.4%).
The rise in infections over the past month and increased costs throughout most of the past year herald a weakening of the recovery in Spain at the beginning of 2022.
Leaving aside divergences in the short term, a comprehensive, balanced approach must pay attention to all the underlying information on the ongoing recovery of the Spanish economy that indicators such as GDP and employment can offer us.
The global economy beat forecasts in 2021, with a more positive than expected first half to the year — driven by the restart in activity and the rollout of vaccinations. However, the second six months were more moderate, affected by supply chain disruptions and rising inflation.
Studies of changes in consumption patterns. These changes were analyzed from the perspective of trends that were on the way and were deepened by the pandemic, as well as the changes generated by the circumstances of the pandemic itself.
We estimate 7.9% to 9.6% annual GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Economic recovery continues in the fourth quarter, but a more demanding base in 2020 leads to a gradual reduction in annual growth.
The economy is recovering strongly, as confirmed by both third quarter growth data and our real-time indicators as of the third week of November. The protagonist of this recovery is both private and public consumption.
Major global trends such as the aging of the population, greater digitalization and concern for the environment, among others, will bring great challenges for the Colombian economy, which is beginning its gradual recovery process.
Members of the Board of Directors of Banco de la República give an idea of what is to come in terms of monetary policy for the remainder of 2021 and 2022. The Central Bank will decide whether to start its upward cycle at the next meeting at the end of September.
