Publications

The world faces climatic, geopolitical, demographic, and technological uncertainties. Distinguishing between probabilistic, rare-event, and epistemic uncertainty helps turn fog into useful knowledge and enables more lucid, resilient decision-making.

The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.

The economists who attempt to predict the consequences of interactions between events, policies and institutions are storytellers. Stories that interpret and define economic reality, such as the epidemic triggered by COVID-19.

In a recent BBVA Research publication, we presented an economic policy uncertainty index based on the content published in the main national newspapers. What lessons about the current economic situation does the index, which is broken down by subject, offer?

Despite the apparent calm of recent days, the underlying elements of recent tensions in financial markets continue to cause concern for several reasons.

Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.