Economic uncertainty latest publications
The economists who attempt to predict the consequences of interactions between events, policies and institutions are storytellers. Stories that interpret and define economic reality, such as the epidemic triggered by COVID-19.
In a recent BBVA Research publication, we presented an economic policy uncertainty index based on the content published in the main national newspapers. What lessons about the current economic situation does the index, which is broken down by subject, offer?
More evident negative effects of worsening global demand and uncertainty on exports and investment explain the downward revision of growth in 2020. Further monetary easing and slightly expansive fiscal policy could help to halt deteriorating confidence and to underpin spending, with increasing divergence across countries.
Despite the apparent calm of recent days, the underlying elements of recent tensions in financial markets continue to cause concern for several reasons.
Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.