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July 30, 2018

Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

Turkish financial assets remain under stress. The level and the duration of adjustment in the economy will depend on the policy reactions in the short term. Inflation reached alarming levels on last year´s loose policies, high inertia and second round effects. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy should complement each o…

April 16, 2018

European Central Bank's monetary policy tone index

This Economic Watch introduces the European Central Bank's (ECB) Monetary Policy Tone index developed from ECB documents, using text mining and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. This analysis allows us to objectively identify and track the relevant thehmes within the ECB’s monetary policy discourse.

April 10, 2018

Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

The Spanish economy will grow 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, above those forecasted three months ago. The favorable external environment and the lower long-term financing cost offset the impact of economic policy uncertainty. This scenario is consistent with the creation of one million jobs and the reduction of the unemploy…

March 27, 2018

China | 'Trading' blows with the U.S.

This watch examines the potential effects of the ongoing US-China trade clash on the Chinese economy. At its current stage, given a trade skirmish rather than a full-blown trade war, the downside risk to the Chinese economy seems contained. However, the Middle Kingdom stands to take a deeper hit in the event of a protracted…

March 19, 2018

Turkey | Revised IP series better fits GDP

IP grew by 12% yoy (cal. adj.) in January (up from 10.7% in 4Q17) above the market consensus of around 7%. IP data is revised with 2015 as the new base year. The new IP portraits a higher correlation (94%) with the new GDP series and a higher growth performance after 2010 (2.5pp on average).

March 14, 2018

U.S. | Regional Economic Outlook 2018

The bright U.S. macroeconomic outlook is reflected in strong expected performance across all states. The adoption of new technologies in the O&G industry is indicative of peak employment rather than peak production levels in the mining sector and will benefit high-value added service niches and regions that can adapt to the…
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February 7, 2018

Turkey | Inflation fell on base effects as expected

Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before f…

January 3, 2018

Turkey | Another pick-up in core inflation

Consumer prices increased by 0.69% (mom) in December 2017, higher than median market expectation and BBVA-GB forecast (both 0.5%). We expect the headline to ease towards slightly below 10% by the end of 1Q and stay close to these levels until 4Q before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.