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August 24, 2018

Might Turkey affect Mexico?

In the past few weeks Turkey has been through bouts of significant financial turbulence. The Turkish lira has depreciated by 22% in August and by about 60% so far this year. An event of this nature in an emerging economy usually has effects on other emerging economies.

July 18, 2016

Summer geopolitics

Over the last year, at BBVA we have been publishing a monthly report on the global geopolitical situation. In this report we have used a high-frequency event database scaled for Big Data to measure the intensity of the most significant conflicts and protests around the world.

July 14, 2016

Turkey | Still Robust GDP Growth in 2Q

IP grew by 5.6% (WDA YoY) in May, beating the consensus estimate (4.1%). April-May production and demand side data pointed at a modest slowdown economic activity in 2Q16 especially in ex-auto items, partly confirming the earlier easing signals from the confidence indicators. We expect some moderation ahead but we maintain o…

July 4, 2016

Turkey: Limited Improvement in Core Inflation

Consumer prices rose by 0.5% In June on monthly basis, leading annual inflation to climb to 7.64% from 6.58%. Although the food inflation resulted in a correction as we had already expected, the worrying outlook in the core prices drew a more negative picture. Annual food inflation accelerated to 6.3% from 1.8%, while core …

June 20, 2016

Emerging mediocrity

The world is distancing itself from the recession of 2009 at a slower pace than before the financial crisis of nearly a decade ago.

June 6, 2016

Los emergentes seguirán volando alto

Durante la próxima década los países emergentes líderes en el crecimiento (los que denominamos EAGLEs) crecerán un 5% frente al 1.5% de los países desarrollados. ¿Cuáles son los retos que deberán afrontar? ¿Qué papel jugarán las clases medias en todo ello?