Publications

The increase in vaccination rates has enabled a gradual reopening of the economy, which, alongside the loosening of repressed demand and excess saving, means that the global economy is on track for a major recovery accompanied by a rise in inflation, which should, theoretically, only be temporary.

Emerging assets have successfully managed to overcome a turbulent year, marked by increased protectionism and fears of a sharp slowdown in the world economy.

The Capital Flows to Emerging Markets are normally associated to positive consequences but unfortunately can have perverse effects when they slow down or suddenly stop. A simple model of “Pull & Push” factors can be useful to understand the driver behind the capital flows to EMs both in the past and in the future.

Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking ahead, EMs would continue to outperform DMs over the short term although hinged on Fed and progress on US-China trade dispute.

As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volatility), outflows from EM are likely to remain

In economics, as in other sciences, history helps us anticipate the shocks that might derail expansion phases such as the current one. Some of the biggest crises have originated with US Federal Reserve rate hikes. This time around, normalisation is being carried out gradually and steadily, with communication geared to avoiding unnecessary scares.

In the 2Q18 global investment funds registered outflows for the first time since 2016. The reversal –driven by tighter global financing and growing concerns on trade- has remained mild and controlled thanks to solid economic growth. It was especially strong in EM. Investor sentiment has veered from risk-on to risk-off mood and we project outflows from EM to continue.