Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets latest publications

October 10, 2019

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

The Capital Flows to Emerging Markets are normally associated to positive consequences but unfortunately can have perverse effects when they slow down or suddenly stop. A simple model of “Pull & Push” factors can be useful to understand the driver behind the capital flows to EMs both in the past and in the future.

February 21, 2019

Global Funds Outlook. First quarter 2019

Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking ahead, EMs would continue to outperform DMs over the short term although hinged o…

December 31, 2018

The uncertainty rocking the markets

The high volatility and sharp falls in stock markets which have been dominating global markets these past few days leave a bitter year-end taste and raise quite a few questions for 2019. This past year 2018 was never going to be easy, with the environment of abundant liquidity and low interest rates drawing to a close.

November 6, 2018

Global Funds Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volati…

October 8, 2018

Winter is coming

In economics, as in other sciences, history helps us anticipate the shocks that might derail expansion phases such as the current one. Some of the biggest crises have originated with US Federal Reserve rate hikes. This time around, normalisation is being carried out gradually and steadily, with communication geared to avoid…

September 10, 2018

Emerging markets: an uncertain route adjustment

Following a bonanza year in 2017, this year looks like becoming a year of losses for emerging financial markets. Since the beginning of the year these countries’ currencies have depreciated on average by close to 13%, their stock exchanges have fallen by 10% and their risk premiums have increased by nearly 100 bp. Are we on…

July 23, 2018

Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2018

In the 2Q18 global investment funds registered outflows for the first time since 2016. The reversal –driven by tighter global financing and growing concerns on trade- has remained mild and controlled thanks to solid economic growth. It was especially strong in EM. Investor sentiment has veered from risk-on to risk-off mood…