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The increase in vaccination rates has enabled a gradual reopening of the economy, which, alongside the loosening of repressed demand and excess saving, means that the global economy is on track for a major recovery accompanied by a rise in inflation, which should, theoretically, only be temporary.
Emerging assets have successfully managed to overcome a turbulent year, marked by increased protectionism and fears of a sharp slowdown in the world economy.
We expect ongoing easing in global uncertainties, and policy support to sustain flows into EMs, mainly those implementing ‘sound’ policies and with stable currencies. However, concerns over underlying vulnerabilities and the potential for f…
The Capital Flows to Emerging Markets are normally associated to positive consequences but unfortunately can have perverse effects when they slow down or suddenly stop. A simple model of “Pull & Push” factors can be useful to understand the…
Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking …
The high volatility and sharp falls in stock markets which have been dominating global markets these past few days leave a bitter year-end taste and raise quite a few questions for 2019. This past year 2018 was never going to be easy, with the environment of abundant liquidity and low interest rates drawing to a close.
As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volati…
In economics, as in other sciences, history helps us anticipate the shocks that might derail expansion phases such as the current one. Some of the biggest crises have originated with US Federal Reserve rate hikes. This time around, normalisatio…
Following a bonanza year in 2017, this year looks like becoming a year of losses for emerging financial markets. Since the beginning of the year these countries’ currencies have depreciated on average by close to 13%, their stock exchanges ha…
In the 2Q18 global investment funds registered outflows for the first time since 2016. The reversal –driven by tighter global financing and growing concerns on trade- has remained mild and controlled thanks to solid economic growth. It was es…
