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‘Search for yield’ has emerged as the predominant driver of funds flows in the current low yield backdrop marked by a complicated global macro outlook and supportive central banks.
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
In the 3Q14 Inflation Report released today, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in 2014, from 1.6% to 0.7% (consensus: 0.3%), and added that the economy will expand by only 1.2% in 2Q15. However, the monetary authority does not expect this sharper economic deceleration to take inflation do…
Annual inflation increased for the fifth consecutive month and reached 6.52% YoY in June. The figure was slightly above forecasts (BBVA: 6.47% YoY; consensus 6.51% YoY). The impact of the World Cup on the cost of hotel stays and airline tickets helped to drive inflation up this month. Inflation will likely be above the 6.5%…
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting in which the SELIC rate was left unchanged at 11.0% suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will be in a waiting mood for some time, assessing how the tightening of monetary conditions during the last months will affect inflation.
Si algo hemos aprendido en los últimos años es que es mejor negociar con más países que con menos, que el mundo no se puede entender sin los países emergentes ganando peso en los organismos internacionales y que China va a ser un actor fundamental en el siglo en que estamos
Nuestras estimaciones apuntan a que los niveles máximos de corrección se alcanzaron a finales de marzo de este año y que en estos momentos nos encontraríamos ya en fase de recuperación