Publications

Hydrocarbons remain a key component of both the global and Argentine energy matrix. The development of unconventional resources, led by Vaca Muerta, has revitalized the industry and improved the country's energy balance.. Despite the growth of renewable energies, gas and oil will continue to be fundamental.

The gas situation in Europe remains favorable thanks to contained demand and stable supply, resulting in gas prices at pre-war levels. We expect no gas shortages in the coming winter, although additional measures will be necessary to have a sustainable gas balance.

The increase in EU gas reserves to 94% of capacity together with warmer weather and lower consumption indicates that Europe is in a good position to face the rise in consumption during winter. Factors to be considered are the European Commission's proposal on the gas price cap and possible gas supply cuts.

All eyes on China's electricity crunch. We analyze the reasons, the authorities' possible actions and economic impact of the recent power shortage.

We conducted a diagnosis of the Colombian electricity sector, identifying the challenges and opportunities that result, thanks to the country's potential and the international context, to promote an energy transition based on Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources and mitigate some of the sector's risks.

As news of the vaccine unfolds, and it becomes more evident that the Covid-19 pandemic could be controlled sometime next year, attention will shift back to climate change as one of the most pressing crises of our time. Across the world, the pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is mounting.

We expect headline inflation to post a 0.00% HoH change in the first half of May, thereby increasing to 2.5% YoY from 2.2% in the second half of April. We anticipate a 0.09% HoH core inflation increase (3.60% YoY, unchanged from 3.61% in the previous fortnight).

Consumer prices increased by 0.85% in April, higher than both the consensus and our expectation (0.6%). Though, annual inflation continued to decelerate to 10.94% from 11.86% in March on top of favorable base effects led by energy prices. We expect consumer inflation to be 7.5% at the end of 2020.