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After growing 3.5% YoY in the first half of the year, activity will slow down in the second half, resulting in GDP growth of 2.3% in 2022. For 2023, we expect a 2.5% expansion, driven by the recovery of mining and tourism that will compensate for a weak external environment and the downturn in public investment.

A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.

The Peruvian economy will grow 12,2% in 2021. Activity has been showing relatively favorable performance, a positive surprise. However, the deterioration of confidence will weaken this impulse looking forward and, together with lesser external …

We provide a macro analytical framework to investigate what determines the RMB exchange rate trend in 2H21. RMB exchange rate is expected go back to the 6.4 to 6.5 range at end-2021 and will display two-way fluctuations.

We expect the Peruvian economy to grow 10% in 2021 and 4,8% next year, supported by a favourable external context. These forecasts are strongly conditioned to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability by the new government administration and l…

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  • Peru

This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies