Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Exchange rate pass-through

Turkey | CPI surprised on the upside with 36.1%

3 January 2022

Consumer prices increased by 13.58% in December significantly above expectations resulting in an annual inflation of 36.1% up from 21.3% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to hover above 40% throughout the year before declining to near 30% at the end of the year, helped by the favorable base impact in December.

Turkey | November CPI realized as 21.3%

3 December 2021

Consumer prices increased by 3.51% in in November, resulting in an annual inflation of 21.31% up from 19.89% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to surprise on the upside in the coming months with levels likely getting close to 30% towards the end of 1Q22.

Turkey | Annual CPI comes down to 11.9% in March

3 April 2020

Consumer prices increased by 0.57% in March, higher than both the consensus 0.5% and BBVA Research 0.23%. Annual inflation declined to 11.86% from 12.37% in February, led by favorable base effects. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to experience one digit levels as early as May and end the year at near 7.5%.

Turkey | August inflation surprised on the downside

3 September 2019

Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, far below the consensus and ours (1.3% Bloomberg vs. 1.4% BBVA Research). Annual inflation decreased from 16.65% in July to 15%, the lowest level in the last 15 months. We maintain our year-end forecast of 15% with downside risks.

Turkey | Inflation outlook deteriorated further in May

4 June 2018

Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in the next CBRT meeting on June, 7 to strengthen its recent policy decisions and enhance credibility.

Effects of a Free Trade Agreement on the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices

31 January 2011

This paper investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the exchange rate pass-through to import prices. It employs an empirical estimation of NAFTA, and uses a Ricardian equilibrium model

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