Exchange rate pass-through

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Consumer prices increased by 13.58% in December significantly above expectations resulting in an annual inflation of 36.1% up from 21.3% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to hover above 40% throughout the year before declining to near 30% at the end of the year, helped by the favorable base impact in December.

Consumer prices increased by 3.51% in in November, resulting in an annual inflation of 21.31% up from 19.89% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to surprise on the upside in the coming months with levels likely getting close to 30% towards the end of 1Q22.

Consumer prices increased by 0.57% in March, higher than both the consensus 0.5% and BBVA Research 0.23%. Annual inflation declined to 11.86% from 12.37% in February, led by favorable base effects. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflatio…

Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, far below the consensus and ours (1.3% Bloomberg vs. 1.4% BBVA Research). Annual inflation decreased from 16.65% in July to 15%, the lowest level in the last 15 months. We maintain our year-end …

Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in the ne…

This paper investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the exchange rate pass-through to import prices. It employs an empirical estimation of NAFTA, and uses a Ricardian equilibrium model