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Doors seem to have closed to the possibility of a rate cut in March. Fed’s need for “more good data” to achieve “greater confidence” of the ongoing disinflation process has been recently supported by recent strong job creation data and signals of sticky core CPI services inflation.

The Fed is moving further away from its long-held tightening bias as it explicitly conveyed that “the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.”

To some extent, the recent adjustment in market expectations and its corresponding impact on broad financial conditions give the Fed some room to continue to convey that the next move will be a rate cut without risking an over-easing of financi…

Even though the recent bond rally appears to have come to a halt, both mid- and long-term Treasury yields have been pricing in the start of a rate-cut cycle for some time.

Not a single Fed official now forecasts that the fed funds rate needs to rise further from its current level in the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot.

Banxico is set to hold the policy rate at 11.25% and stick with its message that, with the disinflation process on track, it will likely cut the nominal policy rate in early 2024 to avoid an unwarranted further increase in the real ex-ante rate.

We expect the FOMC to hold the fed funds rate unchanged at the current 5.25-5.50% target range and to steer clear from fueling speculation about rate cuts in early-2024.

We will learn this month about the last monetary policy decisions of the year in Mexico and the United States. The announcements from the central banks will be crucial for analysts, market participants, and the general public to obtain a cleare…

Following a less hawkish tone from Chair Powell in his press conference early this month, the yield curve now suggests a potential turning point has been reached, reflecting investors’ belief that the Fed is done raising rates and growing expec…

Job creation in October (+150,000) was lower than consensus expectations (180,000), indicating a slowdown despite solid real GDP growth in previous quarters (4.9% in the third quarter of the year, SAAR).

For now, the FOMC will continue with a “meeting-by-meeting” strategy until they are confident that they have achieved a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time.

We expect the FOMC to hold the fed funds rate steady at its 5.25-5.50% target range, but also to keep its doors open for an additional rate hike in December, as signaled by the 5.6% median peak rate projection revealed in the September SEP.