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It still points to one more 25bp rate hike this year as the Fed is still not fully confident about inflation and feels it needs to strengthen market’s expectations about the need for “higher for longer” rates.
The strength of the economy and the job market will refrain the Fed from ruling out the chance of an additional rate hike this year. For now, the FOMC will skip and leave its options open.
With the only change to the policy statement being a somewhat more upbeat assessment of the economic expansion pace, the door for an additional 25bp hike in September remains wide open, but another skip is more likely in our opinion.
Tomorrow’s policy statement and Powell's comments will likely remain hawkish to keep options open despite recent data pointing to cooling inflation. We will look for signals that challenge or support our baseline view that tomorrow’s hike will …
Earlier this month, FOMC members voted unanimously for a skip rather than a longer pause with recent indicators suggesting that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace
The FOMC voted unanimously to keep the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25% but a hawkish shift in the updated SEP signaled that, with a more resilient economy and more stubborn inflation, nearly all members think that the Fed needs to do more.
The inter-meeting period was marked by a significant division of opinions among Fed officials: some voting members conveyed a hawkish stance in favor of further hikes, while some others leaned toward a momentary pause in order to carefully assess the effects of the cumulative tightening.
Divisions among Fed members before the blackout period are evident: the hawks think the Fed needs to go further, others seem to support a pause to wait until the economic picture becomes clearer, and some others seem to think that the Fed has d…
The overall tone of the statement remained hawkish amid first-quarter developments in the real economy, but for the first time since the beginning of the tightening cycle the Fed no longer explicitly “anticipates” the need for more hikes ahead.
Markets now forecast two 25bp rate cuts for the two last FOMC meetings this year in November and December. We continue to expect that after this final hike the Fed will pause for the remainder of the year.
As suggested by the FOMC last month, “some additional policy firming” will likely mean that the Fed will decide to take the fed funds rate to a 5.00- 5.25% target range peak next wednesday through a final 25bp rate hike.
There are initial signs that banking turmoil achieved what Fed’s hawkish rhetoric couldn’t: tighter credit financial conditions. As Powell said, “it doesn't all have to come from rate hikes, it can come from tighter credit conditions.”
