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January 22, 2018

Are we wrong about Catalonia?

The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s c…

August 26, 2010

MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecast…

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different frequencies and delays with respect to the period to which they refer.