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Output would grow by 1,6% in 2023 and by 2,6% in 2024. Economic activity decline in the first quarter of the year and the deterioration of Coastal El Niño phenomenon forecasts, suggesting a more intense and long-lasting event (until early 2024), lead us to revise GDP growth downwards (-0,3pp this year and -0,4pp next).
Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offsetting a milder global activity slowdown. A rebound of 3,0% is expected in 2024.
The Government submitted, the fiscal reform bill that includes social measures, mostly transitory, to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the most vulnerable and raises tax collection by 15.2 trillion pesos permanently, of which 70% from co…
Despite the reduced fiscal space, we consider it desirable to boost private consumption and, by the same token, aggregate demand by reducing the target for the 2019 primary balance to 0.5% of GDP.
Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from…
