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There are a wide number of important economic indicators that are not broadly disseminated when we refer to the economic situation and its forecasts. In this opportunity, we will focus on the most relevant macroeconomic balances: external and fiscal.

Output would grow by 1,6% in 2023 and by 2,6% in 2024. Economic activity decline in the first quarter of the year and the deterioration of Coastal El Niño phenomenon forecasts, suggesting a more intense and long-lasting event (until early 2024), lead us to revise GDP growth downwards (-0,3pp this year and -0,4pp next).

Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offs…

The Government submitted, the fiscal reform bill that includes social measures, mostly transitory, to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the most vulnerable and raises tax collection by 15.2 trillion pesos permanently, of which 70% from co…

Despite the reduced fiscal space, we consider it desirable to boost private consumption and, by the same token, aggregate demand by reducing the target for the 2019 primary balance to 0.5% of GDP.

Uruguay is focused on elections, with necessary structural reforms taking a back seat.

Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from…