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March 26, 2025
The deficit is estimated to have stood at 3.3% of GDP at the end of 2024, and is projected to decline to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Compliance with fiscal rules would entail a slightly tighter fiscal stance over the 2025–2026 period.
July 2, 2024
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will depend on new fiscal rules.
June 24, 2024
This presentation, delivered on the 10th anniversary of the BBVA Pension Institute in Portugal, analyzes the economic forecasts for Portugal and Spain, and the challenge of long-term aging of their population, as one of the challenges facing public systems pensions in Europe.
May 3, 2024
Spain has committed to undertake a huge fiscal adjustment over the next few years. While the impact on the economy will depend on its composition, evidence suggests that it may be significant. Even if this is not the case, it will create social tension.
January 19, 2024
2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward path in public debt ratio to 105% of GDP.
October 10, 2023
The COVID-19 crisis and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine have left a legacy of ballooning public debt levels and structural fiscal deficits higher than those existing in 2019 in many EU countries. Reducing them to avoid greater evils will be a crucial and ambitious task in the coming years.
May 29, 2023
The rules versus discretion debate is back on the table, focusing not only this time on monetary policy (where central banks are having a hard time convincing the markets that inflation will return to target), but also on the reform of European fiscal rules.
January 9, 2023
Spain must combine fiscal consolidation and budgetary stability with growth. It must increase the weight of productive public expenditure over total public spending and improve its efficiency, as a strategy for inclusive progress, in order to reduce inequality with the creation of quality jobs and greater productivity.
