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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently published its updated global forecast with an upward revision that reflects moderate optimism for this year, plagued by geopolitical uncertainties.
2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward path in public debt ratio to 105% of GDP.
The COVID-19 crisis and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine have left a legacy of ballooning public debt levels and structural fiscal deficits higher than those existing in 2019 in many EU countries. Reducing them to avoid greater evils will be…
The rules versus discretion debate is back on the table, focusing not only this time on monetary policy (where central banks are having a hard time convincing the markets that inflation will return to target), but also on the reform of European…
The public deficit appears to be inconsistent with the cyclical position of the Spanish economy. It is contributing to inflation remaining high, in an environment where the unemployment rate is at a 15-year low.
Spain must combine fiscal consolidation and budgetary stability with growth. It must increase the weight of productive public expenditure over total public spending and improve its efficiency, as a strategy for inclusive progress, in order to reduce inequality with the creation of quality jobs and greater productivity.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the performance of the key economic indicators has been disrupted, particularly in terms of the sharp swings in activity and now the persistence of inflation. Policy priorities have also been strongly affected.
The COVID-induced crisis has left a legacy of more public debt and higher public deficits in Spain. Moreover, the envisaged path of budget balances makes public accounts more exposed to the existing risk scenarios.
The high levels of public debt that have been building up since 2020 and the need to lower this burden have prompted a debate on fiscal rules relating to national accounts, aside from the matter of Europe approving common financing instruments …
The election results show a very open electoral landscape—with a narrow victory by the SPD. These elections are important because they signal the start of an electoral cycle in the major European countries, within a context plagued with problem…
The pandemic has led to several historical comparisons, such as the 1918 influenza and the Roaring Twenties that followed. Another clear comparison is the massive Next Generation EU (NGEU) fiscal stimulus set to be launched in Europe, which resembles the Marshall Plan passed following World War II, but for the modern age.
We are faced with a pandemic whose economic impact will likely cause the biggest drop in global GDP since the end of the Second World War. The uncertainties are enormous.
