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By the end of 2024, the public deficit is expected to finish at levels similar to those of 2019. However, this apparent similarity hides profound differences in the composition of revenues and expenses.
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will depend on new fiscal rules.
This presentation, delivered on the 10th anniversary of the BBVA Pension Institute in Portugal, analyzes the economic forecasts for Portugal and Spain, and the challenge of long-term aging of their population, as one of the challenges facing pu…
Spain has committed to undertake a huge fiscal adjustment over the next few years. While the impact on the economy will depend on its composition, evidence suggests that it may be significant. Even if this is not the case, it will create social…
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently published its updated global forecast with an upward revision that reflects moderate optimism for this year, plagued by geopolitical uncertainties.
2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward path in public debt ratio to 105% of GDP.
The COVID-19 crisis and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine have left a legacy of ballooning public debt levels and structural fiscal deficits higher than those existing in 2019 in many EU countries. Reducing them to avoid greater evils will be a crucial and ambitious task in the coming years.
The rules versus discretion debate is back on the table, focusing not only this time on monetary policy (where central banks are having a hard time convincing the markets that inflation will return to target), but also on the reform of European…
The public deficit appears to be inconsistent with the cyclical position of the Spanish economy. It is contributing to inflation remaining high, in an environment where the unemployment rate is at a 15-year low.
Spain must combine fiscal consolidation and budgetary stability with growth. It must increase the weight of productive public expenditure over total public spending and improve its efficiency, as a strategy for inclusive progress, in order to r…
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the performance of the key economic indicators has been disrupted, particularly in terms of the sharp swings in activity and now the persistence of inflation. Policy priorities have also been strongly affected.
The COVID-induced crisis has left a legacy of more public debt and higher public deficits in Spain. Moreover, the envisaged path of budget balances makes public accounts more exposed to the existing risk scenarios.
