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July 3, 2019

Turkey | June inflation opens the door for rate cuts

Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.

July 3, 2018

Turkey | June inflation reaches a worrying 15.4%

Consumer prices increased 2.61% (mom) in June, remarkably higher than expectations. Thus, annual consumer inflation hit 15.4%, the highest level since December 2003, up from 12.2% in May. Assuming no additional negative currency shock, we estimate the year-end inflation to be around 13.5%.

April 4, 2018

Turkey | Sticky Inflation

Consumer inflation recorded 0.99% (mom) in March, in line with the market expectation (1%) but higher than ours (0.75%) on the discrepancy due to surprising food inflation.Recent exchange rate depreciation, upward risks on growth and high inertia (backward and forward looking) obviously create upside risks for our year end …