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The BBVA GDP tracker allows us to measure the performance of economic activity in real time, including big data variables from transactions in BBVA Colombia. With the most recent data, we estimate that growth in the second quarter of 2021 will be between 12.4% and 14.3%.
A model, based on Camacho and Domenech (2012) and Aruoba and Diebold (2010), which are extensions of Stock and Watson (1991), was built to forecast Colombia's GDP in real time. Going forward, BBVA Research will continue to publish updates of the monthly results of this work.
