GDP growth latest publications
After a 13.1% rebound in 2021, this year the economy will grow 2.3% in a context of sustained confidence weakness, withdrawal of economic stimuli and lesser external tailwinds, despite the progress in vaccination and the beginning of operations of new copper mines. For 2023, we expect a 3,0% expansion.
Economic activity grew 3.5% year-on-year in November. In an analysis comparing GDP figures for 2021 with those for 2019 (pre-health crisis situation), activity expanded 1.3% (October: 1.2%).
2021 Q4 GDP outturn together with December real economic indicators again confirmed the growth slowdown, calling for more easing measures in 2022.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 2,00% to 2,50% in December. The Bank pointed out at the deterioration of expectations of domestic activity and a slower recovery of global activity, which could imply some moderation looking forward.
Turkish economy grew by 7.4% yoy in 3Q21, resulting in a growth rate of 11.7% in the first three quarters of the year. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% forecast. Though, recent currency shock and accompanying tighter financial conditions will likely weigh on the downside for 2022 growth.
All eyes on China's electricity crunch. We analyze the reasons, the authorities' possible actions and economic impact of the recent power shortage.
Q2 growth momentum moderated but with a more balanced structure. 2H 2021 policy will remain neutral but accommodative with "no sharp turnaround" to be either aggressive easing or tightening.
Spain’s GDP growth estimate for 2021 is revised upwards up to 6.5%. Moving forward, the stronger progress of global activity, accumulated excess savings, the end of health restrictions and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will boost GDP up to 7.0% in 2022.