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There are some positive signals in August activity indicators, suggesting the economy might have passed the worst amid a series of recent policy support.

China's economic recovery came to a halt in Q2 after registering a stellar performance at the beginning of the year due to sluggish external demand, anemic domestic housing market and weak market sentiments. Policy stance has shifted from "prudent" to "pro-growth".

Upward revision in our 2023 growth estimate to 2.4% (1.4% previously); the resilience of domestic demand drives growth this year. We anticipate a slowdown in 2H23 due to lower external demand, with a carry-over effect on 2024.

Turkish economy grew by 4% y/y in 1Q23 in line with market expectation (vs. 3.9% consensus and 4.3% ours). Assuming no sharp normalization in economic policies ahead of local election in 2024, we expect GDP growth to be in the range of 4-5% in …

La economía creció el 0,2% t/t mostrando una composición atípica de la demanda en la que las principales partidas cayeron con fuerza y se dio un intenso proceso de sustitución de importaciones. En este contexto, las horas trabajadas disminuyero…

The Colombian economy will moderate its growth, from high levels of activity, mainly due to lower private consumption. GDP will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, after a gradual recovery from the end of this year. Inflation will gradually decline, ending this year at 9% and 2024 at 5%.

Turkish economy grew by 3.5% y/y in 4Q22 (vs. 3% exp. and 2.9% consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 5.6% in 2022. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3% in 2023 assuming expansionary fiscal policy and better global growth outlook will compensate the negative impact of the quakes.

In the era of the mass media, disinformation has become a factor that can cause destabilization, confusion, polarization, and harm to society.

Global growth will continue to decelerate gradually in 2023 and recover thereafter. Colombia's GDP will follow a similar path, mainly explained by lower household spending. Inflation will be lower over the next two years, allowing for lower int…

GDP growth forecast is revised moderately upwards to 4.6% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. The economy is holding up better than expected and the probability of recession is reduced. Activity will gain traction as NGEU funds are implemented and uncert…

Turkish economy grew 3.9% y/y in 3Q22 (vs. 4% expected and 4.4% market consensus). We nowcast an annual GDP growth rate of 2.8% as of November, which puts a slight downside risk on our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 2023 GDP growth to be 3% with the expected boost in the first half of the year.

GDP grew 1.7% year-on-year in September. The decline that primary GDP has been showing steadily in September moderated, with the performance of mining standing out within it. The non-primary component, however, accentuated its tendency to weaken in September