Publications

Economic activity slowed down in March to 3.2% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, which reflects the recovery of private investment and the strength of the labor market. So far this year, GDP has accumulated growth of 3.5%.

Economic activity accelerated in February to 3.7% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, with strong momentum in trade and construction. Year-to-date, GDP growth stands at 3.6%.

The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025 driven by exports, despite weak domestic demand and the real estate crash. 4.5% growth is expected for 2026, supported by stimuli and measures against industrial overcapacity. Reflation narrative is on the rise amid the Iran war.

Economic activity grew 3.5% year-on-year in January 2026, in line with the consensus, driven by non-primary GDP, particularly construction and commerce.

We upgraded our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% (1.2% previously), supported by the sustained resilience of consumption and the anticipated gradual recovery in investment. After a weak 2025, formal employment begins to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.

Colombia’s GDP rose 2.6% in 2025 in a domestic-demand rebound. Final consumption grew 4.2%, while investment was uneven—equipment surged but construction fell. Net exports subtracted as imports (+8.4%) outpaced exports (+1.8%).

GDP fell 0.3% QoQ in 3Q25, reflecting the persistent weakening of domestic demand, with less dynamism in private consumption, a slowdown in the real wage bill and sharp declines in gross fixed investment —affected by legal uncertainty, external volatility and the fiscal consolidation.