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December 2, 2019

Turkey | First Positive Growth since 3Q2018

Turkish Economy grew by 0.9% yoy in 3Q19 (Consensus; 1%), the first positive YoY growth since 3Q18. The GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, signaling some momentum loss comparing 1.2% qoq in 2Q19. We maintain a prudent GDP growth forecast of 0.3% for 2019 with some upside risk and a neutral 3% for 2020.

September 2, 2019

Turkey: Growth in 2Q surprised market on the upside

Turkish Economy contracted by 1.5% in annual terms in 2Q19, better than market expectation but worse than ours (-2% Consensus vs. -1% BBVA Research). In quarterly terms, the economy grew at 1.2%, avoiding the “W” pattern but moderating from 1.6% QoQ in 1Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

May 14, 2019

Turkey | “Technical recession” is over but risks are alive

IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.

March 29, 2019

The recovery of the Spanish economy and the challenges ahead

After an unprecedented crisis, Spain has overtaken pre-crisis levels of income per capita due to a favorable combination of external and domestic factors. Although it is difficult to estimate their exact contribution, behind the current economic recovery are the effects of structural reforms, in labor and product markets, t…

March 11, 2019

Turkey | Sharp adjustment of domestic demand in 2018

Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in …

February 14, 2019

Turkey | Downside surprise in Industrial Production (IP)

Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the downside by falling 9.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in December (-8.4% BBVA Research vs. -7.5% Consensus). Thus, IP contracted by 7.5% in 4Q18 after its 1.6% growth in 3Q18. We maintain our view that the recovery in economic activity could start as of 2Q19 and bring the whole …

December 10, 2018

Turkey | Sharper than expected adjustment in 3Q GDP

Turkish Economy grew by 1.6% in yoy in 3Q18, failing to satisfy expectations (2.2% Consensus and BBVA-Research). Quarterly growth rate (sca) realized as -1.1%, which signals that adjustment in the economy becomes faster and is likely to deepen further. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 3% for 2018, while risks are on t…

October 16, 2018

Turkey | Some slow-down signals, more to come

The sharp decline in the unadjusted IP (-11%) in August, which is in line with our expectations (BBVA -11.5%), also implies a yearly contraction in industrial production in 3Q18 which will weigh on GDP growth. With 40% of information, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts a 2% yoy growth in Septem…