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Leading survey-based indicators of August and hard data of July signal a slow-down in economic activity in 3Q25. We expect 2025GDP growth to be 3.5-4%, considering the better than expected first half and the ongoing easing cycle.

Hard data confirmed a soft landing in 2Q25, while early 3Q25 indicators still signal weakness in activity. We maintain our 2025 GDP forecast at 3.5% for now, though risks are slightly tilted to the downside.

We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.

The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.

The economy slowed in 4Q21 (2.0% q/q), but the composition of demand was virtuous. In particular, growth was supported by investment and trade flows. Thus, 2021 closed with an annual increase of 5%, which confirms BBVA Research forecasts and places activity at 4pp of the pre-crisis peak.

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.

As expected, the economy resumed a strong recovery following the easing of the mobility restrictions linked to the state of emergency. Domestic demand added, thanks to consumption, while total investment and external demand subtracted. Hours worked grew more than activity

This paper demonstrates how we use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm Garanti BBVA bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand in real time and high frequency, which has been proven to be necessary to react to rapidly changing economic conditions.