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April 25, 2025
We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.
September 16, 2023
The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.
April 29, 2022
The economy slowed down more than expected in 1Q22 (to 0.3% q/q), mainly due to the weakness of private consumption. However, there are some positive elements in the composition of demand, as growth was supported by a higher-than-expected advance in investment and exports.
January 28, 2022
The economy slowed in 4Q21 (2.0% q/q), but the composition of demand was virtuous. In particular, growth was supported by investment and trade flows. Thus, 2021 closed with an annual increase of 5%, which confirms BBVA Research forecasts and places activity at 4pp of the pre-crisis peak.
December 13, 2021
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 8.5% yoy in calendar adjusted term(5.4% yoy in raw series), in line with the market expectation in October. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% GDP growth forecast.
July 30, 2021
As expected, the economy resumed a strong recovery following the easing of the mobility restrictions linked to the state of emergency. Domestic demand added, thanks to consumption, while total investment and external demand subtracted. Hours worked grew more than activity
July 8, 2021
This paper demonstrates how we use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm Garanti BBVA bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand in real time and high frequency, which has been proven to be necessary to react to rapidly changing economic conditions.
June 12, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) in April contracted by 31.4% yoy as the restrictions and the impact of the COVID on the activity intensified during the month. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020 and wait for June’s indicators to confirm the pace of recovery. Important down side risks remain.
May 29, 2020
Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.
February 28, 2020
Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.
January 14, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, parallel to the market expectation of 5.5% in November. Thus, IP grew by 4.5% yoy in October-November period. We expect GDP growth in 4Q19 at around 5%, implying 0.8% growth in 2019. Our baseline forecast for 2020 GDP growth remains at 4%.
