Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on GDP nowcast

Türkiye | Smooth landing signals so far

30 June 2025

Hard data realizations so far confirm the slowdown in activity in 2Q25 while domestic demand conditions continue to moderate. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% despite the downside risks, assuming an effective policy mix targeting a smooth adjustment.

Big Data techniques used

Türkiye | Tracking Sectoral GDP with Big Data and Nowcasting Models

25 April 2025

We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.

Big Data techniques used

Colombia | BBVA GDP Tracker, September 2023

16 September 2023

The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.

Spain | GDP grew 0.3% q/q in 1Q21, below expectations

29 April 2022

The economy slowed down more than expected in 1Q22 (to 0.3% q/q), mainly due to the weakness of private consumption. However, there are some positive elements in the composition of demand, as growth was supported by a higher-than-expected advance in investment and exports.

Spain | GDP grew 2.0% q/q in Q4 and 5% in 2021, in line with forecast

28 January 2022

The economy slowed in 4Q21 (2.0% q/q), but the composition of demand was virtuous. In particular, growth was supported by investment and trade flows. Thus, 2021 closed with an annual increase of 5%, which confirms BBVA Research forecasts and places activity at 4pp of the pre-crisis peak.

Turkey | Strong activity indicators in November

13 January 2022

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.

Turkey | Still robust activity in 4Q

13 December 2021

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 8.5% yoy in calendar adjusted term(5.4% yoy in raw series), in line with the market expectation in October. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% GDP growth forecast.

Spain | GDP returned to growth in the second quarter of the year (2.8% quarter-on-quarter)

30 July 2021

As expected, the economy resumed a strong recovery following the easing of the mobility restrictions linked to the state of emergency. Domestic demand added, thanks to consumption, while total investment and external demand subtracted. Hours worked grew more than activity

Big Data techniques used

Turkey | Big Data and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions

8 July 2021

This paper demonstrates how we use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm Garanti BBVA bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand in real time and high frequency, which has been proven to be necessary to react to rapidly changing economic conditions.

Turkey | Contraction in production deepens in April

12 June 2020

Industrial Production (IP) in April contracted by 31.4% yoy as the restrictions and the impact of the COVID on the activity intensified during the month. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020 and wait for June’s indicators to confirm the pace of recovery. Important down side risks remain.

Turkey | 1Q GDP already shows the COVID impact

29 May 2020

Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.

Turkey | The economy grew by 0.9% in 2019

28 February 2020

Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.

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