Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Geopolitical risk

Europe | Hawkish pause sets the stage for a September hike

July 23, 2026

The ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% following a unanimous decision. Lagarde adopted a hawkish tone, stressing that the energy shock has yet to fully feed through the economy. With more data available by September, the next move will depend on whether energy and geopolitical pressures persist over the summer.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 21 July 2026

July 21, 2026

US–Iran conflict intensifies as both sides continue military strikes across the Gulf. Russia and Ukraine exchange major long-range attacks

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 14 July 2026

July 14, 2026

US-Iran confrontation intensifies with new strikes and maritime tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. European leaders strengthen the military support framework for Ukraine

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 7 July 2026

July 7, 2026

Iran holds funeral ceremonies for the Supreme Leader. NATO prepares major defense announcements. Russia launches one of its deadliest recent attacks on Kyiv ahead of the NATO Summit

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 30 June 2026

June 30, 2026

U.S. and Iran Prepare for New Talks.Russian Attacks Kill Civilians Across Ukraine.JP Morgan Calls for Stronger U.S. Military and Economic Power Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 23 June 2026

June 23, 2026

U.S.-Iran Negotiations Advance Toward Permanent Agreement. Fragile Ceasefire Holds in Southern Lebanon.G7 Reaffirms Support for Ukraine

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 16 June 2026

June 16, 2026

US and Iran Move Toward Formal Peace Agreement but Israel Signals Long-Term Military Presence in Lebanon and Syria. G7 Leaders Focus on Ukraine and Middle East Security

Global | Assessing Structural Geopolitical Risk

June 15, 2026

This paper introduces a novel measure of Structural Geopolitical Risk (SGR), designed to capture the long-run conditions that shape the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and fragmentation.

Spain Economic Outlook. June 2026

June 10, 2026

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain solid growth above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by employment, private consumption, services exports, and the housing sector. However, a weaker external environment, inflation, higher interest rates, and structural challenges will constrain part of its growth potential.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 9 June 2026

June 9, 2026

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Faces Renewed Strain Amid Regional Tensions. Armenian Elections Reinforce Pro-European Course. Scrutiny continues over security challenges in the Sahel

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