Publications

U.S.-Iran hostilities intensify as Tehran targets Gulf states. EU weighs response after Germany attributes attempted drone attack to Russia. China warns Taiwan over participation at Pacific summit.

Middle East tensions have triggered high oil market volatility. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz created upward price pressure, but global reserves limited the impact to 4%. Uncertainty remains, with price scenarios dependent on the conflict's evolution and US political factors.

Tensions in Hormuz remain while Turkey urges Washington to pursue diplomacy with Iran. Ukraine launches major drone assault on Russia as Russian missile strike kills civilians.

Iran-Oman Maritime Framework Advances, but US-Iran Differences Leave Hormuz Reopening Unsettled. Ukraine Deepens Strikes on Russia’s Energy Infrastructure

Unresolved US-Iran Diplomacy Over Hormuz, Ukraine’s Air-Defence Shortfall and Proposed US Tariffs on Russian Energy Buyers Sustain Pressure on Global Energy Markets

Consumer price inflation came in at 1.78% m/m, slightly below our expectation (1.85% m/m) and the consensus (1.9% m/m), bringing annual inflation down to 31.8%. We continue to maintain our 30% year-end inflation forecast, considering volatile energy prices and still-elevated, unanchored inflation expectations.

US and Iran Continue Diplomatic Contacts During Pause in Military Strikes: Yemen Warns Houthis Seek to Expand Maritime Pressure in the Red Sea.Washington Maintains Diplomatic Focus