Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on geopolitics

Global | Geopolitics, geoeconomics and sovereign risk: different shocks,different channels

March 18, 2026

Geopolitical shocks reprice sovereign default risk directly; geoeconomic shocks bypass default risk and transmit through expected monetary policy and the global financial cycle.

Big Data techniques used

Global | A Brief History of the Future: Data, Text and AI for Smarter Policies

December 9, 2025

This presentation, delivered as a keynote lecture at the Bundesbank–SUERF Conference "AI and the Future of Central Banking", explores how artificial intelligence, big data, and advanced modelling are transforming economic analysis and the policy toolkit available to central banks.

Big Data techniques used

Global | Geopolitics, geoeconomics and risk: a machine learning approach

October 15, 2025

We introduce a novel high-frequency daily panel dataset of both markets and news-based indicators for 42 countries across both emerging and developed markets.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 30 September 2025

September 30, 2025

The United States unveils new Gaza peace plan offering hostages release and ceasefire terms. Pentagon presses for increase in weapons

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 23 September 2025

September 23, 2025

Growing international recognition of Palestine & push for two-state solution. Russia-Estonia Airspace Dispute Heightens NATO Tensions

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 17 September 2025

September 17, 2025

Israel launches ground assault on Gaza with strong international condemnation. Russia‐Belarus military drills, NATO tensions rise

Europe | EU Priorities: Defence Spending & Multipliers

September 16, 2025

The document summarizes the presentation delivered at the European Investment Bank (EIB) on European defense spending, analyzed from a geopolitical perspective and from an economic standpoint, presenting the estimated fiscal multipliers of defense expenditure for Europe (García-Serrador, Sarasa-Flores, and Ulloa, 2025).

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 11 June 2025

June 11, 2025

Russia Launches Massive Drone & Missile Attack on Ukraine. Western Nations Sanction Israeli Officials. Reactions to US-China Trade Agreement.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 4 June 2025

June 4, 2025

Ukraine Launches deep-strike drone attacks on Russian strategic assets. Deadly incident in Gaza. Dutch Prime Minister resigns

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 28 May 2025

May 28, 2025

Trump increases pressure on Russia. European Union Approves € 150 Billion Defense Fund. Israeli Airstrikes Intensify in Gaza.

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