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July 13, 2018

Monitoring Global Trade Support in real time using BigData

The stagnation of global trade and the retreat of globalization have become a key issue across the world over the recent years. Both critics and supporters of globalization have spread their stance on it in academic and policymaking speeches. China and the United States are among the countries where trade support has been n…

March 17, 2017

Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moder…

January 26, 2017

Global Watch | Improving activity, but higher uncertainty

Global growth has stepped up further in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and stronger confidence along with improving global trade and higher new orders. Nonetheless, risks are tilted to the downside and are linked to politics and protectionism, but also derive from China’s …

February 15, 2016

Peter and the Wolf

I am sure you all know the fable of Peter and the Wolf. The financial markets are shouting loudly that there is something troubling going on with the world economy.