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There is good news for the European Central Bank (ECB) thanks to the clear reduction of inflationary pressures, led by the slowdown in the prices of industrial goods, energy and food — and, to a lesser extent, by services, which still show a very persistent behavior.
Although energy and borrowing costs may be falling, businesses will have other challenges to contend with in 2024, including the risk of changes in labor regulation and taxation.
In recent months, inflation has shown signs of moderation in most countries, both developed and emerging, but there is still a ways to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels.
Industrial production (IP) declined by 0.8% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, while increasing by 3.1% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. We expect GDP to materialize close to 4.5% in 2023, whereas gradual interest rate hikes on top of…
Spanish exports increased by 12.9% from 4Q19 to 1Q23. By comparison, GDP would have barely returned to its pre-pandemic level during that period, while private consumption and investment were 4.8% and 3.7% below 4Q19 levels.
A year ago, few managed to glimpse what 2022 was to be like geopolitically and socially, let alone economically. In this complex environment, one of the key asset classes was commodities.
At the end of 1H21, both headline and core inflation remained stable, although at opposite extremes. The former, very high at 2.7% yoy, and the latter relatively low, at 0.2% yoy. Short-term risks exist of a rise in core inflation.
