Publications

Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed Colombia’s sovereign rating at BB+ with a negative outlook, highlighting economic recovery despite fiscal deterioration. The key now is sustainable growth, driven by investment. The next challenge will be Moody’s review, which still keeps Colombia at investment grade.

The indebtedness of the private sector remains below that of peer countries, though signs of deterioration in NPL ratios started to be seen. Banks’ FC liquid assets are solid enough to cover their ST external debt. FC credit evolution and swap policies of the CBRT will be decisive for banks’ FC liquidity.

In this Working Paper, we analyze the effect of government size on social welfare and GDP per capita growth for the sample of 36 OECD countries in the last six decades.

Javier Milei will be the new president of Argentina. He takes office with the challenge of correcting strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. The adjustment of spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an acceleration of inflation and further contraction of GDP in the short term.

The 2020 deficit is revised to 13% due to the strength of tax collection. The fiscal policy of the coming years will be conditioned by the implementation of the Recovery Plan

The economic challenges for President Duque's remaining term are great and urgent, given the need to provide welfare for those who have lost their jobs and sources of income to the virus. Although the Government has acted swiftly to reach the most vulnerable, recovery measures need to be expedited.

The public deficit deterioration will be greater than expected three months ago. In an unprecedented crisis, the sustainability of public debt could be compromised.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures will have an extraordinary impact on public accounts. The deficit and the public debt will be at their highest levels in the last decade.