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The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures will have an extraordinary impact on public accounts. The deficit and the public debt will be at their highest levels in the last decade.
Budget execution data up to Nov-19 anticipate a further structural deterioration of the structural balance during 2019. For 2020-2021, and pending the completion of the new government's budget programme, the recently approved measures maintain the expansionary tone of fiscal policy
The Spanish economy is suffering a double impasse. Politically, although a government has just been formed, it is difficult to anticipate what support it will have for approving new general budgets and legislative initiatives that provide a new momentum for reform. Economically, GDP has slowed.
Budget execution data up to July 2019 slightly worsens the dynamics of 2018. For the 2019-2020 period, an exclusively cyclical adjustment is expected, which will determine a slightly expansive tone of fiscal policy
Budget implementation in April 2019 slightly worsens the dynamics of 2018. During the 2019-2020 period, and in no policy change scenario, the pace of adjustment of the public deficit would be moderating compared to that observed in previous years
The first budget execution data for 2019 slightly worsens last year's dynamics. In an environment of extended budget and policy uncertainty, the economic cycle will reduce the deficit, although the current fiscal targets will be missed.
The formation of a new government in Spain and the current composition of Congress, where no party has a clear majority, has left Spaniards wanting the political parties to reach a consensus on the important issues of the day.