Publications

Activity resumed growth in Q4 2025 (0.8% q/q), supported by domestic demand, despite a negative contribution from net external demand. GDP growth was underpinned by an increase in hours worked, as hourly productivity declined. Overall, GDP grew 2.8% in 2025.

In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. This growth was due to domestic demand, which managed to offset the decline in external demand. During this period, there was a significant increase in employment and a decrease in productivity.

The economy experienced a stronger-than-expected recovery in the second quarter of 2025, with quarterly growth of 0.8%, driven mainly by domestic demand. This performance, combined with statistical revisions, skews growth expectations for 2025.

The economy regained traction in line with expectations in 2Q25 (0.7% q/q) due mainly to the boost from private consumption and investment. The growth was accompanied by higher employment and effective hours worked, although mixed signals were observed in productivity.

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

The economy slowed and grew less than expected in Q1 2025 (0.6% q/q), mainly due to sluggish consumption and weaker-than-estimated investment momentum. Growth was accompanied by higher employment, although with fewer hours worked and mixed signals on productivity.

GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, following three years of around 3% growth. The slowdown will be driven by tighter monetary conditions, a weaker fiscal impulse, and a less favorable global context, though the primary sector and labor market resilience will provide support.