Growth projection latest publications
Spain's growth expectations for 2021 and 2022 are moderated to 5.2% and 5.5%, respectively. These figures are weighed down by a number of negative factors such as disruptions in production chains, rising energy prices and delays in the implementation of NGEU funds.
Based on historical evidence, the Economic Watch assesses the plausibility of meeting Net-zero and NDC emission pathways (with GDP growth conditioned or not to BBVA baseline) and suggests that if unprecedented shocks are not induced (e.g. through carbon price policies), climate targets will not be reached.
Spain’s GDP growth estimate for 2021 is revised upwards up to 6.5%. Moving forward, the stronger progress of global activity, accumulated excess savings, the end of health restrictions and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will boost GDP up to 7.0% in 2022.
The Spanish economy contracted by 10.8% in 2020 and could grow by 5.5% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. In line with expectations, the economy recorded a slowdown, leading to stagnation during 4Q2 and could have contracted in 1Q21. Moving forward, a significant acceleration is expected, particularly in the second half of 2021.
The increase in contagion has led to mobility restriction measures slowing economic recovery. However, for Colombia, the recovery will gradually increase and will be sustained by private consumption, public consumption, and a gradual increase in investment, allowing improvements in the labor market.
The Spanish economy could have contracted by 11.0% in 2020 and grown by 5.5% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. GDP growth exceeded expectations in 3Q20, but the slowdown in the fourth quarter would have been intense. Moving forward, a significant acceleration is expected in the second half of 2021
The Spanish economy could contract by 11.5% in 2020 and grow by 7% in 2021. The drop in activity could exceed 20% in 1H20. However, the easing of restrictions has allowed the recovery to begin. GDP could increase by 10% quarter on quarter in 3Q20.