Publications

The real estate sector regained dynamism in 2024. Sales grew in much of the country, driven by a more favorable economic environment. However, the new supply remained insufficient to meet demand. The performance of the sector will be conditioned by several factors.

The fact that there is not enough affordable housing in Spain right now is not up for debate. However, as last week’s proposals show, not everyone agrees on the solution.

The housing shortage is a complex problem, which is the subject of increasing attention and justified social, economic and political concern. Large segments of the population suffer from difficulties in accessing residential rental housing or homeownership, especially in large cities and high-demand areas.

At the end of 2022, the outlook for the residential sector was bleak. It was assumed that house sales and house prices would contract in 2023. Sales fell, but prices rose.. By 2024, the sector is expected to go from strength to strength and to consolidate a change in trend as 2025 approaches.

Going forward, the real estate market will be exposed to factors that will put negative pressure on demand. For example, interest rates are expected to continue rising and the 12-month Euribor is expected to stabilize above 4% and remain there for much of 2023 and 2024.

The COVID pandemic coincided with a surge in housing prices in several countries, especially some of the richest, despite the fact that at the same time there was an exceptional slump in economic activity that would normally have led to a sharp decline in prices.

Some 675,000 homes were sold in Spain in 2021, 38.1% more than in 2020, and well above the level of 2019, before the outbreak of the pandemic. Sales regained the pre-pandemic level in the summer of 2020 and have maintained a robust growth trend since then.

One issue that regularly comes up in the real estate market is knowing whether or not house prices are overvalued, especially when prices increase several quarters in a row. There's no easy answer, because it requires comparing the price with its equilibrium price.