March 5, 2018
IMACEC latest publications
The growth in the IMACEC in January of 3.9% YoY exceeds market expectations, supported by a genuine upturn in the non-mining sector. Trade, manufacturing and services boosted growth of 3.5% YoY in non-mining activity, while mining expanded by 8.6% YoY. In February we would see growth of between 4.0% and 5.0% YoY.
The growth of 2.6% YoY in the December IMACEC, around what was expected, is a good figure, especially considering that it was a month with two fewer working days. With this, the preliminary growth of 4Q17 and of the year are 2.9% YoY and 1.6%, respectively, giving a positive surprise to the base scenario of the IPoM of Dece…
The November Imacec (monthly indicator of economic activity) has surprised even the most optimistic, growing by 3.2% YoY. In contrast with the last few months, this time mining made less of an impact. Compared to last month, and in deseasonalised terms, aggregate activity grew by 0.7% MoM.
Actividad no minera se contrae interrumpiendo (¿transitoriamente?) un proceso de recuperación. Este registro es compatible con un crecimiento en torno a 1,4% (BC 1,4%; EEE 1,5%), donde los últimos dos meses del año debería promediar algo en torno a 2% a/a.
Pese a fuerte incidencia de minería (0,9pp), Imacec de septiembre de 1,3% a/a se ubica bajo lo esperado por el mercado. Sectores no mineros muestran una clara desaceleración, con un crecimiento mensual desestacionalizado nulo. El mes contó con dos días hábiles menos que el año previo.
We estimate monthly activity index (Imacec) would grew in a range between 2.2% and 2.6% YoY in June, ending the 1H14 with a grow at around 2.5% YoY. However, we expect the 2H14 grow at around, or slightly, above 3.5% YoY, with a particular contribution of the 4Q14.
June 6, 2014
Activity data in Chile confirms moderation; inflation surprised to the upside in Colombia
The context of activity and inflation in Chile is in line with a wait and see stance in monetary policy in the short term. Inflation figures in Colombia surprised to the upside for the fourth consecutive month. Minutes of the last MP meeting in Brazil were in line with our view of stability in the MPR in a context of deteri…