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After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows.
We summarized the recent Chinese economic development as well as policy outlook in 2024. We also highlight the March 2024 "Two sessions".
We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We …
The automotive sector once again had an outstanding performance among the different sectors of the economy despite the adverse local macroeconomic context that led to a significant increase in commercial debt with its headquarters. We expect 20…
Industrial production (IP) fell by 1.4% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, while increasing by 0.2% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. GDP growth will likely materialize closer to 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3-3.5% in 2024 led by monetary tight…
The increase in energy prices in 2021, which was exacerbated by the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has hit the German economy particularly hard, due to the importance of energy-intensive sectors and its energy dependence on Russian gas.
Industrial production (IP) slightly fell by 0.1% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, corresponding to 4.0% y/y growth in cal. adj. terms. Given our soft-landing assumption with expected fiscal impulse and support from potential foreign capital inflow, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.5% for 2023 and at 3.5% for 2024.
Industrial production (IP) declined by 0.8% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, while increasing by 3.1% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. We expect GDP to materialize close to 4.5% in 2023, whereas gradual interest rate hikes on top of…
China’s Q2 2023 GDP growth moderated to 6.3% y/y, suggesting the previous strong recovery momentum came to a halt in Q2 amid the fading effect of reopening.
Industrial production (IP) rapidly recovered in March increasing by 5.5% m/m (1.8% m/m cons.), mostly wiping out the impact from the earthquakes. Recent better than forecasted momentum and potential continuation of populist policies after elect…
The automotive sector has had an outstanding performance in 2022 despite the challenging context it faced due to shortages of imported inputs, global logistics problems and union conflicts. We expect domestic market sales in 2023 to be similar to those of 2022.
China’s economic outlook of this year has been largely changed from its previous policy-led softlanding story by the recent flare-ups of Omicron and particularly Shanghai’s lockdown. However, this adverse spillover effect has not yet been fully reflected in Q1 GDP.
