Industrial production (IP) slightly fell by 0.1% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, corresponding to 4.0% y/y growth in cal. adj. terms. Given our soft-landing assumption with expected fiscal impulse and support from potential foreign capital inflow, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.5% for 2023 and at 3.5% for 2024.
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Industrial production (IP) declined by 0.8% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, while increasing by 3.1% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. We expect GDP to materialize close to 4.5% in 2023, whereas gradual interest rate hikes on top of relatively supportive fiscal policy could lead 3.5% growth in 2024.
China’s Q2 2023 GDP growth moderated to 6.3% y/y, suggesting the previous strong recovery momentum came to a halt in Q2 amid the fading effect of reopening.
Industrial production (IP) rapidly recovered in March increasing by 5.5% m/m (1.8% m/m cons.), mostly wiping out the impact from the earthquakes. Recent better than forecasted momentum and potential continuation of populist policies after elect…
The automotive sector has had an outstanding performance in 2022 despite the challenging context it faced due to shortages of imported inputs, global logistics problems and union conflicts. We expect domestic market sales in 2023 to be similar …
China’s economic outlook of this year has been largely changed from its previous policy-led softlanding story by the recent flare-ups of Omicron and particularly Shanghai’s lockdown. However, this adverse spillover effect has not yet been fully reflected in Q1 GDP.
Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside, increasing 13.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs our expectation of 10% and consensus of 7.5%). We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in 2022.
The automotive industry was one of the hardest hit sectors in 2020, but one of the strongest rebounding sectors in 2021. However, the shortage of dollars in the economy limits the possibilities of a sustained expansion of the sector. We estimat…
GDP in the Basque Country will accelerate in 2022 to 5.3%. In 2023, GDP growth could moderate to 4.5%. If the forecasts are met, 56,000 jobs would be created between 2020 and 2023. In the short term, the bias on forecasts may be upwards if a le…
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.
Industrial Production (IP) grew parallel to expectations by 8.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (8.8% yoy in raw series) in September. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.5% with risks on the upside considering the expansionary bias of the economy policies.
Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Despite the fading positive base effects 3Q onwards, given the strong momentum so far and recovering global growth, we keep our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9% with risks on the upside.