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    November 14, 2019

    Turkey | The Economic Recovery Accelerates

    The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.

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    July 31, 2019

    China’s economy is still searching for a bottom

    Last week China’s government announced its GDP figures in the second quarter as well as a batch of activities indicators in June such as industrial production, retail sales and fix-asset investment. These headline figures still look fine.

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    July 12, 2019

    Turkey | Promising signal from May IP

    IP declined by 1.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, slightly better than market expectation (-2%). Hence, the annual contraction in IP (c.a.) decelerated further from -4.7% in 1Q19 to -2.6% in the first two months of 2Q19. In absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

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    May 14, 2019

    Turkey | “Technical recession” is over but risks are alive

    IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.

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    February 14, 2019

    Turkey | Downside surprise in Industrial Production (IP)

    Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the downside by falling 9.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in December (-8.4% BBVA Research vs. -7.5% Consensus). Thus, IP contracted by 7.5% in 4Q18 after its 1.6% growth in 3Q18. We maintain our view that the recovery in economic activity could start as of 2Q19 and bring the whole …

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    November 16, 2018

    Turkey | Adjustment in activity gains momentum

    Industrial Production (IP) decreased by 2.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, lower than the market expectation ( 1.5% Bloomberg vs -7.5% ours). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 2.2% yoy growth in September and 0.6% annual contraction in October (with 96% and 47% of info includi…

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    August 16, 2018

    China | Growth slowdown continues

    July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-gro…

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    July 24, 2018

    Eurozone | A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks

    Confidence seem to level off pointing to a steady growth in 2H18. The 1Q18 slowdown in activity added to increasing uncertainty and higher commodity prices lead us to slash GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.7% in 2018-19. Higher oil prices and a weaker euro increase our headline inflation forecasts to 1.7% and 1.8% for this …

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