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    April 20, 2022

    China | Shanghai lockdown effect has not been fully reflected in Q1 figures

    China’s economic outlook of this year has been largely changed from its previous policy-led softlanding story by the recent flare-ups of Omicron and particularly Shanghai’s lockdown. However, this adverse spillover effect has not yet been fully reflected in Q1 GDP.

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    April 12, 2022

    Turkey | Activity in q/q contraction as of April

    Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside, increasing 13.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs our expectation of 10% and consensus of 7.5%). We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in 2022.

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    February 16, 2022

    Argentina | Automotive Outlook 2022

    The automotive industry was one of the hardest hit sectors in 2020, but one of the strongest rebounding sectors in 2021. However, the shortage of dollars in the economy limits the possibilities of a sustained expansion of the sector. We estimate that a similar number of vehicles will be sold in 2022 as in 2021.

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    February 10, 2022

    Spain | Basque Country Economic Outlook 2022

    GDP in the Basque Country will accelerate in 2022 to 5.3%. In 2023, GDP growth could moderate to 4.5%. If the forecasts are met, 56,000 jobs would be created between 2020 and 2023. In the short term, the bias on forecasts may be upwards if a lesser impact of the pandemic on activity is confirmed.

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    January 13, 2022

    Turkey | Strong activity indicators in November

    Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.

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    November 12, 2021

    Turkey | Industrial Production remained strong in 3Q

    Industrial Production (IP) grew parallel to expectations by 8.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (8.8% yoy in raw series) in September. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.5% with risks on the upside considering the expansionary bias of the economy policies.

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    October 12, 2021

    Turkey | Rebound in industrial production in August

    Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Despite the fading positive base effects 3Q onwards, given the strong momentum so far and recovering global growth, we keep our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9% with risks on the upside.

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    September 15, 2021

    China | Worse-than-expected growth exposed the vulnerability of anti-virus strategy

    The August real economic indicators further confirmed a continuing deceleration growth amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all tumbled.

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