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March 26, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. March 2019

GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Model based recession probability reaching troubling levels, growth outlook also tilted to the downside. Probability of Fed rate hike in 2019 diminished; balance sheet normalization to end in September. Labor market signals remain mixed after government shutdown. Core in…
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

March 7, 2019

ECB | Draghi reacts in all fronts

The ECB strengthened its forward guidance on rates, with no rate hikes at least through the end of 2019. They also launched a new series of TLTROs. The central bank made a significant downward growth revision in 2019, but minor changes in the medium term. Despite the revision, risks remain tilted to the downside.

January 29, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. January 2019

GDP growth to moderate in 2019. Risk of recession remains elevated over the next 24 months. Fed to delay raising rates in 1H19 as it continues to engineer a soft-landing. Labor market slack remains minimal. Inflation expectations down, as pass-through from rising input costs muted. 10-year Treasury to follow shallower path.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

December 13, 2018

ECB Watch | The end of QE and caution for the future

The ECB confirmed that it will end the net asset purchases at the end of the month, after almost four years. Minor changes in the outlook, but more cautious due to growing downward risks.

November 13, 2018

U.S. | Corporate debt in the twilight of the credit cycle

Nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP is high, but debt-to-assets and debt-to-earnings remain moderate. Solid earnings, tax cuts and low real interest rates allow corporations to service their debt without problems. However, tighter financial conditions, a slowdown in profit growth and higher risk aversion will lead to higher …
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

July 24, 2018

Turkey | The CBRT stays on hold & Lira depreciates

The Central Bank (CBRT) decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged (17.75%) despite the market expectations (including ours) of 100 bps tightening. We expect the CBRT will have to tight later, maybe tighter depending on the degree of fiscal consolidation and currency volatility.

June 20, 2018

United States Economic Outlook. June 2018

Incoming data reaffirms our baseline scenario of moderate to high GDP growth and higher inflation in 2018 & 2019. Federal Reserve poised to raise rates twice in the second half of the year and possibly three times in 2019. We continue to expect above average growth in employment which will push the unemployment rate to 3.6%…
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

May 18, 2018

China | Financial liberalization: time to restart

The process of China’s financial liberalization ground to a halt in 2015-2017 after experiencing a cluster of episodes of financial turmoil. After a few years of adjustment, the authorities now seem to be ready to press ahead with their agenda of financial liberalization again. Moreover, the authorities’ renewed interest in…