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Colombia crecerá 1,2% en 2023 y 1,5% en 2024, apoyada en el crecimiento del sector público, del consumo privado por servicios y de las exportaciones. La inflación continuará ralentizándose y la política monetaria siendo restrictiva por un tiempo. La desaceleración de los países desarrollados será un desafío para el país.
Output would grow by 1,6% in 2023 and by 2,6% in 2024. Economic activity decline in the first quarter of the year and the deterioration of Coastal El Niño phenomenon forecasts, suggesting a more intense and long-lasting event (until early 2024), lead us to revise GDP growth downwards (-0,3pp this year and -0,4pp next).
The Central Bank Board (BCRP) decided to maintain in May the monetary policy rate at 7,75%, a decision that was widely expected.
At its April meeting, the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 13.25%. The vote was split, with 2 members voting in favor of holding rates steady, one in favor of a 50bp increase and 4 in favor of a 25bp incre…
At its March meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points to 13.0%. The vote was unanimous.
Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offsetting a milder global activity slowdown. A rebound of 3,0% is expected in 2024.
The Colombian economy will moderate its growth, from high levels of activity, mainly due to lower private consumption. GDP will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, after a gradual recovery from the end of this year. Inflation will gradually decline, ending this year at 9% and 2024 at 5%.
The Latin American economy faces crosswinds in a scenario of disequilibrium, in line with international dynamics, where the main economic variables are still adjusting after the disruptive events of the most recent years.
At its January meeting, the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 75 bp, bringing it to 12.75%. The vote was split, with 2 members voting in favor of a 25 bp increase and 5 in favor of 75 bp.
At its December meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 12.0%. Although the vote was mostly for a 100bp increase, there was one vote for a 125bp increase and another for a 25bp incre…
Global growth will continue to decelerate gradually in 2023 and recover thereafter. Colombia's GDP will follow a similar path, mainly explained by lower household spending. Inflation will be lower over the next two years, allowing for lower interest rates from the end of 2023.
At its October meeting, Banco de la República increased its monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, taking it to 11.0%, its highest level since July 2001. The decision was unanimous, seeking to consolidate a positive signal to reassure local financial markets.
