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Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.

We present a summary and analysis of the most relevant developments and publications in Mexico's financial regulatory landscape.

Without major surprise, in May the Central Bank cut once again its policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 5,75%. We estimate that from now on the monetary normalisation process will unfold more gradually, closely following the behaviour of core in…

The Colombian economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Private consumption, in the same two years, will grow at rates of 2.2% and 3.0%, respectively. And fixed investment will move from negative (-2.0% in 2024) to positive figures (6.2%…

The Colombian economy will grow 1.2% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. The recovery will start slowly from the first part of 2024, driven by the improved performance of private consumption. Inflation is expected to show a gradual reduction path that wi…

Colombia crecerá 1,2% en 2023 y 1,5% en 2024, apoyada en el crecimiento del sector público, del consumo privado por servicios y de las exportaciones. La inflación continuará ralentizándose y la política monetaria siendo restrictiva por un tiempo. La desaceleración de los países desarrollados será un desafío para el país.

Output would grow by 1,6% in 2023 and by 2,6% in 2024. Economic activity decline in the first quarter of the year and the deterioration of Coastal El Niño phenomenon forecasts, suggesting a more intense and long-lasting event (until early 2024), lead us to revise GDP growth downwards (-0,3pp this year and -0,4pp next).

The Central Bank Board (BCRP) decided to maintain in May the monetary policy rate at 7,75%, a decision that was widely expected.

At its April meeting, the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 13.25%. The vote was split, with 2 members voting in favor of holding rates steady, one in favor of a 50bp increase and 4 in favor of a 25bp incre…

At its March meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points to 13.0%. The vote was unanimous.

Economic activity is expected to grow 1,9% in 2023, six tenth of a percentage point less than our early-December forecast. This revision considers the social upheaval at the beginning of the year and higher political uncertainty, more than offsetting a milder global activity slowdown. A rebound of 3,0% is expected in 2024.

The Colombian economy will moderate its growth, from high levels of activity, mainly due to lower private consumption. GDP will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, after a gradual recovery from the end of this year. Inflation will gradually decline, ending this year at 9% and 2024 at 5%.