Publications

The U.S. decision not to extend the USMCA confirms our baseline scenario that the agreement will remain in force. The USMCA will remain in force until 2036 unless all three parties agree to extend it.

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.

Despite rising protectionism, global trade remains resilient, more consistent with a reallocation of trade flows than with a deglobalization scenario. International commerce has been supported by the ongoing AI boom, robust demand, and a weaker US dollar (which generally supports global trade).

United States tariff policies in 2025 have reignited protectionist measures, while inconsistent trade stances from the Trump administration have added uncertainty.

In June 2025, Mexico faced an effective average tariff of 8.28% on $44.9 billion in exports to the US—among the lowest globally. This reflects shifting trade flows and sector-specific tariff variations, positioning Mexico to benefit from renewed nearshoring momentum.

On April 29, President Trump signed an executive order and a proclamation that modified the current tariffs related to security, immigration, the automotive industry, steel, and aluminum. These changes eliminate tariff stacking and provide rebates for the automotive sector.

On April 2, 2025, the White House issued an executive order introducing reciprocal tariffs aimed at regulating U.S. trade and reducing the trade deficit. A baseline 10% tariff will take effect on April 5, while country-specific reciprocal tariffs will be implemented starting April 9.