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The trade war between China and the US and, to a lesser degree, the effects of the pandemic caused the former to lose 4.2 percentage points of share in the US market of manufactured imports between 2018 and 2021.
Last month the government announced the intention to stop exporting oil as of 2023 to instead use it in the national refining of gasoline with the aim of achieving "energy autonomy" and stop importing gasoline.
Exports of goods overcame the weak start of the year and remained sustained, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in May. A progressive recovery in the tourism sector is expected, as foreign tourism is partially offset by national.
Despite the fact that is less exposed to the US economy than the rest of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), Spain will still benefit from expansionary policy in the United States. BBVA Research believes that this impact will grow and add around 0.2 pp to GDP growth in 2021 and 0.8 pp in 2022.
Despite the difficult global context brought about by COVID, the Spanish exports of goods maintained their export market destination and gained competitiveness and share in international trade. Outlook is favourable, although the uncertainty about the pandemic remains high and its impact on global activity is relevant.
COVID-19 hit international trade in 2020, paralyzing activity in several sectors and disrupting global supply chains. Demand plummeted and trade flows were severely damaged. The upward trend in the export of Spanish goods that had been ongoing since 2010 was also interrupted.
The expansion of global trade has slowed in recent years, following a long period of exuberance. How will trade flows evolve over the next decade, taking into account recent trends such as the pandemic and climate change, as well as other factors?
International trade will slow down by 2030, due to both traditional factors (technology, economic development, trade policies) and new determinants (COVID-19, sustainability).