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    September 17, 2020

    Global | Investment in Real Time and High Definition

    The high uncertainty triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has stressed the need to monitor the evolution of the economy in “real time”. We developed a set of Big Data indicators to track Investment in Real Time and High Definition, extending the analysis to assess the business cycle and complementing our tracker of consumption.

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    August 13, 2020

    Mexico | The worrying drop in investment

    Investment in Mexico has been falling in recent years. This is a worrying trend. This component of aggregate demand is of fundamental importance since it determines the long-term productive capacity and, therefore, the potential growth rate of the economy.

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    June 19, 2020

    Mexico | Investment grade loss is avoidable

    The number of alerts about the possibility that Mexico's credit rating falls below investment grade has grown in recent weeks. I believe that, in the absence of significant measures, this will happen either next year or in 2022.

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    February 13, 2020

    Turkey | December IP surprised on the upside

    Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, surprising expectations on the upside in December (7% BBVA Research vs. 6.6% market median). Thus, IP growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in 4Q19 after its yearly contraction of 0.5% in 3Q19. 2019 GDP growth will likely be materialized at above 0.5% yoy.

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    January 27, 2020

    Colombia | Economy : New Year New Life

    We have just done our forecasting exercise for the global economy and the Colombian economy, and we are seeing the glass get a little fuller. We do not see a world with spectacular growth, but we do see a world in which uncertainty is less than it was a few months ago, allowing world growth to stabilize.

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    January 9, 2020

    Colombia | Reports 2019 and Projects 2020

    It is time to recapitulate what 2019 left us and what we should focus on in 2020. The year that has just ended left us in terms of the global economy great episodes of volatility marked by commercial issues but also by eternal political-economic novels such as Brexit.

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    December 30, 2019

    North American Trade Agreement: An Excellent Opportunity For Mexico

    Mexico, Canada and US have reached an agreement to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into 25 years ago and which president Donald Trump promised to renegotiate during his electoral campaign. It's important to remember that an understanding had already been reached in December of last year.

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    December 30, 2019

    Questions Left Unanswered in 2019

    In The Godfather movies, you can never cease to be surprised at the feeling you get that when the main character knows more than you. That he is one step ahead. This is what Al Pacino makes quite clear when he tells his brother Fredo: “I know it was you” (who betrayed me.)

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