Publications

Spain has completed its corporate deleveraging. In March 2026, credit to companies grew by 3.6% year-on-year, albeit unevenly. Services, with a 5.4% increase, are leading the recovery, while industry and construction are still reducing their credit. Future expansion will depend on investment.

The geopolitical context has driven Spain to enter an expansionary cycle and reach the defense spending target of 2% of GDP in 2025. A structural change aimed at military modernization through major programs is observed, with a central role for the domestic industry and greater European cooperation.

Grid congestion may delay housing construction and constrain new residential developments in high-demand areas. Accelerating investment in electricity networks, improving coordination between urban planning and grid planning, and optimizing the allocation of network capacity will be key to supporting residential growth.

GDP grew by 1.5% QoQ in 2Q26, bringing cumulative growth in the first half of the year to 1.2% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect the World Cup-related boost to fade, with weak domestic demand once again becoming the main driver of the outlook.

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Indicator grew 5.5% in June, driven by the automotive sector. A gradual improvement is expected, especially in sectors linked to AI value chains in the U.S.

The US economy shows solid dynamism, with an estimated growth of 2.4%, driven by AI investment and expansionary fiscal policy. However, there are significant risks such as the sustainability of the AI boom, a high public deficit, and inflationary pressures.

The Spanish economy shows resilience with a projected growth of 2.5% in 2026, but faces structural challenges in productivity and per capita income. The European Commission's recommendations focus on the sustainability of public finances, improving productivity, and innovation.