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Murcia's GDP grew by 5.2% in 2021. The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy, the increase in the price of raw materials and uncertainty reduce growth expectations. Even so, Murcia's GDP could grow by 4.1% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. By the end of 2023, GDP could exceed that of 2019 by almost 4%.
After growing 3.8% year-on-year in March, economic activity advanced 3.7% in April, despite the strict confinement that took place in the city of Lima. The expansion of the non-primary component stood out (5.1%). On the other hand, the primary component of GDP, more linked to extractive activities, contracted by 1.3%.
The GDP of the Balearic Islands would have grown by 10.5% in 2021. The sanctions imposed on Russia and the increase in fuel prices reduce growth expectations. Even so, Balearic GDP could increase by 7.1% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2023, making the Balearic Islands the most dynamic region in the three-year period 2021-2023.
GDP growth in Castile and Leon could slow to 2.9% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. The impact of the invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions imposed on Russia and the increase in prices of raw materials and, above all, fuels, are weighing more heavily on growth in the more industrially-oriented regions.
The GDP of Castilla-La Mancha could grow by 4.8% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023. If the forecasts are fulfilled, Castilla-La Mancha could recover the pre-crisis GDP level in this semester. Between 2021 and 2023, 86,000 new jobs could be created. The short-term bias will depend on the impact of the geopolitical and sanitary risks.
GDP in the Basque Country will accelerate in 2022 to 5.3%. In 2023, GDP growth could moderate to 4.5%. If the forecasts are met, 56,000 jobs would be created between 2020 and 2023. In the short term, the bias on forecasts may be upwards if a lesser impact of the pandemic on activity is confirmed.
The control of the pandemic, the return of foreign tourism, the arrival of European funds and the progressive elimination of bottlenecks to production mark the regional scenario. Tourist communities will grow more, but those in the north will also achieve historically high numbers.
Economic activity grew 4.6% year-on-year in October, a negative surprise for the market. In an analysis comparing GDP figures for 2021 with those for 2019 (pre-health crisis situation), activity decelerated to 1.2% (September: 3.1%).