Monetary Policy Committee

Monetary Policy Committee latest publications

June 12, 2019

Turkey | CBRT remains “tight” but closer to “ease”

As expected, the CBRT maintained its policy rate unchanged. Important uncertainties on politics and geopolitics remain to be solved, so today’s decision is a prudent one. We maintain our view that the CBRT will start the gradual easing cycle towards the end of the year, but the expected disinflation could bring it forward.

June 24, 2015

Brazil | COPOM still sees 2016 inflation above 4.5%; monetary tightening to continue ahead

The 2Q15 Inflation Report revealed that the COPOM expects inflation to close 2015 at 9.0%, decline to 4.8% at the end of 2016 and converge to the 4.5% target only in 2Q17. As its focus is on taking inflation to the target by the end of 2016, its forecasts suggest it will continue tightening monetary policy ahead. We now exp…

May 7, 2015

Brazil | We expect another SELIC hike in June

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting suggest that the tightening cycle is not over yet. According to the COPOM, the efforts to drive inflation down to 4.5% by the end of 2016 are "still not sufficient" and therefore monetary policy must remain "vigilant". We take today's minutes as a sign that the SELIC will…

May 4, 2015

Follow what I do and also what I say: monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets

We find that futures rates increase (decrease) after both an increase in the reference interest rate and a hawkish (dovish) communication by the BCB. Moreover, BCB words create more “noise”, since they increase volatility of futures rates. Our analysis reveals that BCB communication has increased its effectiveness after the…

April 30, 2015

Brazil | Another 50bp hike in the SELIC to rein in 2016 inflation expectations

The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided to adjust up the SELIC rate by 50bp, as in its three previous meetings. By maintaining the adjustment pace unchanged in spite of the signs of sharp deceleration in economic activity, the monetary authority tries to convince markets that it will be able to make inflation to conve…

December 11, 2014

COPOM focuses at taking inflation to the 4.5% target by 2016

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting in which the SELIC rate was hiked by 50bp to 11.75% show that the plan of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) is to take inflation back to the 4.5% target by 2016. To do so the monetary authority seems to count on more supportive fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies from now …

June 6, 2014

Activity data in Chile confirms moderation; inflation surprised to the upside in Colombia

The context of activity and inflation in Chile is in line with a wait and see stance in monetary policy in the short term. Inflation figures in Colombia surprised to the upside for the fourth consecutive month. Minutes of the last MP meeting in Brazil were in line with our view of stability in the MPR in a context of deteri…

June 5, 2014

Brazil: COPOM is confident about the impact of the recent tightening on inflation

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting in which the SELIC rate was left unchanged at 11.0% suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will be in a waiting mood for some time, assessing how the tightening of monetary conditions during the last months will affect inflation.