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All in all, while waiting for wage data that underpin the expected slowdown in service prices, the ECB heads to the June meeting leaving the stage set to begin the cycle of cuts, regardless of the Fed's monetary policy steps.
As expected, the ECB announced a moderate slower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP for next quarter, as compared to that in the previous two quarters. The decision was taken by unanimity by the Governing council on the back of favourable financing conditions and slightly better inflation outlook
Even though inflation forecasts were revised upwards, the tone of the monetary policy minutes was not hawkish. The Copom refrained from signalling that either a tightening or an easing of monetary conditions is imminent. Hence, the minutes rein…
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to leave the Selic rate at 14.25%. The fact that two members of the Committee favored a 50bp hike and the lack of changes in the communique suggest that an eventual easing of monetary conditions is …
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting show that Copom is now more concerned about the evolution of the Chinese economy and oil markets, which "can strengthen the scenario of convergence of inflation to the 4.5% target in 2017". The…
In line with our view, but in contrast with the market consensus, the Copom decided to keep interest rates unchanged in an environment marked by political pressure against a further monetary tightening, the worsening of the prospects for economic activity and "domestic and mainly external uncertainties". Looking forward, th…
The COPOM suggested that it will increase interest rates if the fiscal situation deteriorates further, which is more likely now after the launching of the impeachment process of President Rousseff. Anyway, our base scenario is for a stable Selic ahead, which was supported by the COPOM's forecast of inflation around the targ…
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting suggest that the tightening cycle is not over yet. According to the COPOM, the efforts to drive inflation down to 4.5% by the end of 2016 are "still not sufficient" and therefore monetary poli…
The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided to adjust up the SELIC rate by 50bp, as in its three previous meetings. By maintaining the adjustment pace unchanged in spite of the signs of sharp deceleration in economic activity, the monetary au…
The minutes of the last week's monetary policy meeting, in which the SELIC rate was hiked by 50bp to 12.25%, confirmed our view that the ongoing adjustment of monetary conditions will continue in the short-term. We expect a 25bp hike in the nex…
