Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
As expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as inflation improves and medium-term risks diminish. Christine Lagarde dropped no hints regarding possible future decisions, as per the central bank’s recent policy of taking action meeting by meeting, based on hard data.
As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.
No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises…
All in all, while waiting for wage data that underpin the expected slowdown in service prices, the ECB heads to the June meeting leaving the stage set to begin the cycle of cuts, regardless of the Fed's monetary policy steps.
As expected, the ECB announced a moderate slower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP for next quarter, as compared to that in the previous two quarters. The decision was taken by unanimity by the Governing council on the back of favourab…
Even though inflation forecasts were revised upwards, the tone of the monetary policy minutes was not hawkish. The Copom refrained from signalling that either a tightening or an easing of monetary conditions is imminent. Hence, the minutes reinforced the view that the Selic rate will remain unchanged for some further time (…
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to leave the Selic rate at 14.25%. The fact that two members of the Committee favored a 50bp hike and the lack of changes in the communique suggest that an eventual easing of monetary conditions is not imminent.
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting show that Copom is now more concerned about the evolution of the Chinese economy and oil markets, which "can strengthen the scenario of convergence of inflation to the 4.5% target in 2017". The…
In line with our view, but in contrast with the market consensus, the Copom decided to keep interest rates unchanged in an environment marked by political pressure against a further monetary tightening, the worsening of the prospects for econom…
The COPOM suggested that it will increase interest rates if the fiscal situation deteriorates further, which is more likely now after the launching of the impeachment process of President Rousseff. Anyway, our base scenario is for a stable Seli…
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting suggest that the tightening cycle is not over yet. According to the COPOM, the efforts to drive inflation down to 4.5% by the end of 2016 are "still not sufficient" and therefore monetary policy must remain "vigilant". We take today's minutes as a sign that the SELIC will…
The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided to adjust up the SELIC rate by 50bp, as in its three previous meetings. By maintaining the adjustment pace unchanged in spite of the signs of sharp deceleration in economic activity, the monetary authority tries to convince markets that it will be able to make inflation to conve…
