National Accounts latest publications
The fall in GDP in Q2 (-18.5% QoQ; -22.1% YoY) slightly exceeded expectations and confirmed the serious effects of the containment. Domestic demand suffered most of the adjustment (-16.1pp QoQ; -4.2pp YoY), but external demand also fell. The fall in hours worked was intense and productivity increased.
The Spanish economy could contract by 11.5% in 2020 and grow by 7% in 2021. The drop in activity could exceed 20% in 1H20. However, the easing of restrictions has allowed the recovery to begin. GDP could increase by 10% quarter on quarter in 3Q20.
The Spanish economy decelerated by 0.2pp to 0.5% QoQ (2.3% YoY) in Q2. Domestic demand explained the moderation in growth (0.2pp QoQ; 1.6pp YoY) due to the unexpected slowdown in consumption and investment. The contribution of external demand increased (0.3pp QoQ; 0.7pp YoY)
The Spanish economy grew by 0.7% QoQ (2.4% YoY) in 1Q19. According to INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadística — Spanish National Statistics Institute), domestic demand accounted for much of this growth (0.5 pp QoQ/2.2 pp YoY) thanks to the stability of consumption and the recovery of investment. External demand also grew (0.…
The Spanish economy grew by 0.7% QoQ (2.4% YoY) in 4Q18. This growth was, in large part, due to domestic demand (0.4 pp QoQ; 2.7 pp YoY) as a result of the boost in national consumption, while external demand regained some traction (0.3 pp QoQ; -0.3 pp YoY) after its disappointing performance during the first nine months of…
The Spanish economy grew 0.6% QoQ (2.5% YoY) in Q3. Domestic demand explained the entire advance (0.8 pp QoQ; 3.0 pp YoY), thanks to the gain in traction of consumption and investment. On the other hand, the contribution of external demand was negative (-0.2 pp QoQ; -0.5 pp YoY), as trade flows overall fell back again.
The Spanish economy slowed by 0.1% to 0.6% QoQ in Q2. Domestic demand accounted for the entire advance, although some items such as private consumption disappointed. The contribution of external demand was negative, as trade flows declined overall. Despite this, investment in machinery recovered traction
The Spanish economy grew 0.7% QoQ (2.9% YoY) in 1Q18, supported by domestic demand. Although this increase in business activity is slightly less than expected in real time (0.8% QoQ), it is consistent with the BBVA Research scenario, which envisages an average increase in GDP of 2.9% by 2018