Publications

As we draw closer to 2026—the last year for Spain to mobilize its funding under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RRRP)—now would be a good time to take stock of the progress made, while also examining the constraints that still prevent Spain from unlocking the full transformative potential of this funding.

The execution of grants and public tenders under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan has reached 58% of the planned investments, equivalent to 2.9% of GDP. It is estimated that over 1,100,000 beneficiaries—mainly SMEs and individuals—have already received support.

In 2024, the prospects will improve in all the Autonomous Communities, driven by employment, domestic consumption and, above all, service exports. In 2025, the push will come from the industrial communities and the recovery of the south after the drought, with tourist communities losing momentum.

72.7 billion euros, 91% of the planned total, has been approved over the lifetime of the Recovery Plan, but only around 33.5 billion (42% of the planned amount) have been resolved. In total, it is estimated that the funds would be reaching more than 500,000 businesses and families.

Without significant changes in the regional growth hierarchy in 2023. In 2024, external demand weakens the progress of activity, with a greater impact on the more open regions.

Spanish GDP growth forecast in 2023 is maintained at 2.4%, and the forecast in 2024 is revised down to 1.8%, given the declining global outlook, particularly in Europe, in an environment of high uncertainty. Added to this is the increase in oil prices.

Upward revision of the Spanish economy in 2023 to 2.4%, to be led by the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and Madrid. But growth in 2024 is revised by 0.5 pp (to 2.1%), due to the slowdown in the tourism industry, the rise in interest rates, and the delay in the impact of the NGEU funds.

GDP growth is revised upwards in 2022 and 2023 to 5.5% and 1.6%, respectively, and downwards in 2024 to 2.6%. The Spanish economy is holding up better than expected, although persistent inflation and the expectation of higher interest rates worsen the growth scenario for next year.