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The new administration's announcements in the United States on trade policy have led to significant alterations in global production and value chains. One reflection of these variations was the performance of commodity markets.

Oil prices have experienced high volatility this year. Lower global demand and increased supply from OPEC+ have driven a bearish trend, which was recently interrupted by tensions between Israel and Iran. The outlook remains uncertain, especially concerning a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The average price for 2024 has been very close to $80 per barrel of Brent, although with a downward trend throughout the year, largely due to more subdued economic activity in China and the gradual increase in supply from the main producers in the Americas.

This year has witnessed the convergence of several sources of uncertainty within the financial and commodity markets. These factors have caused high volatility in the price of oil, which has fluctuated, in the year to date, between 75.7 and 91.8 dollars per barrel of Brent.

The production of liquid hydrocarbons in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed a quarterly decrement of 15.3 thousand barrels a day due to a reduction of 21.7 thousand barrels a day of Pemex’s crude oil production despite an increase of 7.0 thousand barrels a day of condensates.

The oil market remains at the center of the global spotlight. This has been the case for some months now due to the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, a confrontation reminiscent of the most difficult moments of the oil market in the 1970s.

Having passed the halfway point of the year, it is important to reflect on the behavior of the oil market, and to take note of the lessons learned for the second half of 2023.