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Commodity markets, like other financial markets, have been unusually volatile in the last month, largely due to the trade policy announcements by the new United States administration.

The average price for 2024 has been very close to $80 per barrel of Brent, although with a downward trend throughout the year, largely due to more subdued economic activity in China and the gradual increase in supply from the main producers in the Americas.

Commodity prices are front and center in global economic discussions. The last two months have seen the cost of oil rise by around 10%, alongside significant volatility. This has a lot to do with the short-term chaos.

The production of liquid hydrocarbons in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed a quarterly decrement of 15.3 thousand barrels a day due to a reduction of 21.7 thousand barrels a day of Pemex’s crude oil production despite an increase of 7.0 thousand barrels a day of condensates.

In 2023, the price of Brent crude averaged USD 82.5, falling from over USD 100 in 2022, driven by the war between Russia and Ukraine, although its trend over the past year has been somewhat erratic and dominated by a wide array of events.

Having passed the halfway point of the year, it is important to reflect on the behavior of the oil market, and to take note of the lessons learned for the second half of 2023.

A year ago, few managed to glimpse what 2022 was to be like geopolitically and socially, let alone economically. In this complex environment, one of the key asset classes was commodities.

At the height of the storm, we are seeing the world slowing down as inflation remains high, partly due to high commodity prices... a relentless bidding war between supply and demand from which neither will benefit.