Publications

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged due to the worsening situation in the Middle East. The institution has adopted a wait-and-see stance and plans to gather new data through June before making decisions.

The energy transition is reducing Europe's exposure to gas. In Spain, the strong expansion of renewables has helped contain wholesale prices, but system costs have prevented this decline from being fully passed on to consumers.

The ECB is addressing the supply shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East by using economic scenarios. The institution is taking a watchful stance toward inflation risks and the persistence of energy prices to avoid second-round effects on the economy.

The quote “it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” is attributed to Niels Bohr. Today, it is even more so in an environment of high uncertainty. The increase in costs caused by the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran will have negative effects on the Spanish economy.

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

Geopolitical crises do not automatically trigger energy transitions. They accelerate diversification only when economically viable and scalable substitutes already exist. Price spikes alone are insufficient; transition dynamics are shaped by shifts in perceived supply risk, technological readiness, and policy responses.

The new administration's announcements in the United States on trade policy have led to significant alterations in global production and value chains. One reflection of these variations was the performance of commodity markets.