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We will see a very tight market throughout 2023, despite what is likely to be a significant economic slowdown due to various shocks, following the trend seen in recent years.
A year ago, few managed to glimpse what 2022 was to be like geopolitically and socially, let alone economically. In this complex environment, one of the key asset classes was commodities.
At the height of the storm, we are seeing the world slowing down as inflation remains high, partly due to high commodity prices... a relentless bidding war between supply and demand from which neither will benefit.
With rising energy prices, which are driving up inflation and dragging down economic activity, policymakers are facing some difficult dilemmas. This is the case with fuel subsidies in Spain and similar measures in other European countries.
Oil prices have been subject to high volatility over the past half century due to political factors and, more recently, due to its appetite as a financial asset. The last few months have been no exception.
With inflation on the rise globally and an increase in Brent prices of around 50% year to date, there are many voices in favour of increasing the supply of oil. OPEC+ has a solution, but after the lack of consensus during the recent meetings, discussions have been put off with no date set for the next.
Although historical evidence tells us that the increase in fuel prices observed over the last few months could considerably slow down recovery (by around one percentage point according to BBVA Research), there is reason to think that this time could be different.
Economic recovery, output cuts, and progress on Covid-19 vaccination have boosted oil prices. OECD inventories are receding from above-average levels, implying a tighter market.
Faltering demand is preventing oil prices to experience a sustained increase. Fundamentals are consistent with our baseline scenario. In the absence of a vaccine, we expect prices to remain below $45 per barrel for the rest of the year.
The oil and gas (O&G) sector was severely impacted by the lockdowns around the globe and the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a sharp decline in oil prices.
Oil prices will remain very low in 2Q20, but will recover in 2H20 as the worst of the pandemic is left behind. Even though the global economy will be boosted by fiscal and monetary support, prices will remain subdued.
Pemex should take advantage of the 100,000 barrels a day cutback to reduce capex in E&P in 2020. This policy action would boost its liquidity, improve chances of meeting its financial balance approved by Congress and avoid increasing its financial debt.
