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Middle East tensions have triggered high oil market volatility. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz created upward price pressure, but global reserves limited the impact to 4%. Uncertainty remains, with price scenarios dependent on the conflict's evolution and US political factors.

Pemex's liquid hydrocarbon production averaged 1.658 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, a slight increase of 6.2 thousand barrels per day from the previous quarter. Despite five consecutive quarters of increases, the figure remains far from the target of 1.8 million barrels per day.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a global economic shock in 2026 that is impacting Latin America. Rising commodity prices and logistics costs have triggered a spike in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

Despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is holding up better than expected, thanks to energy relief measures and the momentum from artificial intelligence. The outlook depends on trade reopening to prevent a rebound in prices.

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged due to the worsening situation in the Middle East. The institution has adopted a wait-and-see stance and plans to gather new data through June before making decisions.

The energy transition is reducing Europe's exposure to gas. In Spain, the strong expansion of renewables has helped contain wholesale prices, but system costs have prevented this decline from being fully passed on to consumers.

The ECB is addressing the supply shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East by using economic scenarios. The institution is taking a watchful stance toward inflation risks and the persistence of energy prices to avoid second-round effects on the economy.