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The dynamics of nominal GDP (in USD) from oil mining are closely related to the oil revenues of the federal government. In Mexico, as a price-taker in the international market, such dynamics are determined by the evolution of oil prices, the volume of production and the exchange rate.
Oil prices will remain very low in 2Q20, but will recover in 2H20 as the worst of the pandemic is left behind. Even though the global economy will be boosted by fiscal and monetary support, prices will remain subdued.
