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This year has witnessed the convergence of several sources of uncertainty within the financial and commodity markets. These factors have caused high volatility in the price of oil, which has fluctuated, in the year to date, between 75.7 and 91.8 dollars per barrel of Brent.
Commodity prices are front and center in global economic discussions. The last two months have seen the cost of oil rise by around 10%, alongside significant volatility. This has a lot to do with the short-term chaos.
The oil market remains at the center of the global spotlight. This has been the case for some months now due to the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, a confrontation reminiscent of the most difficult moments of the oil market in the…
In 2023, the price of Brent crude averaged USD 82.5, falling from over USD 100 in 2022, driven by the war between Russia and Ukraine, although its trend over the past year has been somewhat erratic and dominated by a wide array of events.
We will see a very tight market throughout 2023, despite what is likely to be a significant economic slowdown due to various shocks, following the trend seen in recent years.
With inflation on the rise globally and an increase in Brent prices of around 50% year to date, there are many voices in favour of increasing the supply of oil. OPEC+ has a solution, but after the lack of consensus during the recent meetings, discussions have been put off with no date set for the next.
One of the strongest price rallies in history for various commodities (e.g. oil, copper, steel) is consolidating in 2021. The speed of the upside movement could make you think that we are at the start of a new commodities supercycle. If we are, it would be quite different from the previous ones.
Economic recovery, output cuts, and progress on Covid-19 vaccination have boosted oil prices. OECD inventories are receding from above-average levels, implying a tighter market.
Faltering demand is preventing oil prices to experience a sustained increase. Fundamentals are consistent with our baseline scenario. In the absence of a vaccine, we expect prices to remain below $45 per barrel for the rest of the year.
Oil prices will remain very low in 2Q20, but will recover in 2H20 as the worst of the pandemic is left behind. Even though the global economy will be boosted by fiscal and monetary support, prices will remain subdued.
Rather than boosting prices in the short-run, the production agreement could result in less volatility and more stable conditions for the market to recover.
In the midst of the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Saudi Arabia's increased oil production and cutting of prices went unnoticed.
